The latest Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll gives the Government cause for optimism on Nice but little else, reports Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
Mr Bertie Ahern will look at this morning's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll results and wonder where it all went wrong. However Mr Enda Kenny will be wondering if his Fine Gael party will ever do anything right.
For the Taoiseach, the poll confirms that the dismal ratings recorded for him, his Government and his party in the last poll 18 days ago were no statistical blip. The collapse in public satisfaction with the Government by 25 percentage points since May shown in the last poll has been followed by a loss of a further three points. Those dissatisfied (61 per cent) outnumber those satisfied (33 per cent) by almost two to one.
Mr Ahern's personal satisfaction rating at 44 per cent is down seven points in 18 days and 26 points since May. Some 50 per cent are dissatisfied while six per cent have no opinion.
The changed economic message since the election coupled with the reaction to the Flood Tribunal report have conspired to removed his famed Teflon coating.
There is scant consolation for him in the increase in Fianna Fáil support from 34 per cent to 36 per cent - from the worst to the second worst rating since he took over the party leadership.
But for Mr Enda Kenny, the vista offered by this latest poll is arguably worse. With the Government dealing with unremitting bleakness, the main opposition party has contrived to lose four percentage points and stands at just 19 per cent support. It is the party's worst showing in over two years.
Most shocking for the party is its core support in Dublin, now down to just eight per cent. In the capital the party now trails not only Fianna Fáil (30 per cent core support) and Labour (14 per cent) but also Sinn Féin (nine per cent) and independents (nine per cent). The Green Party on eight per cent is level with Fine Gael while the PDs are on five per cent.
Mr Kenny's own satisfaction rating is at 32 per cent, up four points since last month's poll. Some 23 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance while a high 45 per cent have no opinion, reflecting the fact that as a new leader, Mr Kenny has not yet inspired strong positive or negative views among voters.
Labour will be reasonably content that it has held the 14 per cent support registered in September - higher support than in any poll since January, 2001. With the outcome of the Labour leadership contest due tomorrow week, support for the outgoing leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, was not measured in this poll.
Sinn Féin and the Green Party see their support remain steady at nine per cent and eight per cent respectively. Satisfaction with the Sinn Féin leader, Mr Gerry Adams, has slipped by a marginal two points to 52 per cent. However, some 28 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, an increase of nine points. Some 20 per cent had no opinion, a fall of seven points.
The Green Party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, has a 43 per cent satisfaction rate, an increase of 3 points. Some 17 per cent are dissatisfied with him, also up three points. Some 40 per cent have no opinion, a drop of six points.
Progressive Democrat support has remained unchanged at five per cent, but the satisfaction rating for the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, is down five points to 52 per cent. Some 36 per cent are dissatisfied with Ms Harney's performance, up four points. Some 12 per cent have no opinion, up one point.
In the context of such poor regard for the Government, the margin of support for the Nice Treaty has remained remarkably stable during the campaign. The figures - 42 per cent Yes; 29 per cent No; 19 per cent no opinion; 10 per cent will not vote - show an almost perfectly proportional drift from the Don't Know category to the Yes and No sides since late September.
There is evidence too that while No voters are more dissatisfied with the Government than are Yes voters, the numbers opposing Nice because they want to protest are not as high as had been feared by the pro-Nice camp.
Some 22 per cent of No voters say their decision has been influenced by the Government's performance on the economy, with 14 per cent saying the Government handling of the Flood Tribunal report was a factor. Other factors are more important to the No camp, however. Some 38 per cent of opponents of Nice said fears over neutrality had influenced their decision. Fear of too much immigration was a factor for 38 per cent of No voters, while 44 per cent said the fear that Ireland would lose power and identity was a factor.
Support for the treaty is higher among men (45 per cent) than women (39 per cent). Among the social categories 50 per cent of farmers, 48 per cent of the higher earning ABC1 group and 36 per cent of the C2DE category supports the Treaty.
Finally, there has been a general increase in voters' perception of their level of understanding of the issues involved. Some 24 per cent now say they have a good understanding of what the treaty is about, up eight points. Some 40 per cent say they understand some but not all of the issues, up three points. The percentage saying they are only vaguely aware of the issues, or do not know at all what the treaty is about has fallen nine points to 36 per cent.