IJNSIDE POLITICS:Concessions to facilitate a second vote on the Lisbon Treaty underline the EU's desire to have it ratified this time around, writes Stephen Collins
IT WAS no surprise that Brian Cowen committed himself at the EU summit in Brussels to taking another stab at ratifying the Lisbon Treaty. His EU partners are now depending on him to carry the referendum next time round.
The Government is naturally making the most of the package of concessions wrung from the other EU leaders which will involve all countries retaining a commissioner and a set of legal guarantees to meet specific Irish concerns.
A number of countries had serious reservations about the retention of a commissioner by all member states. On issues such as neutrality and abortion, they simply resigned themselves to indulging another bout of Irish eccentricity, if that is what it takes to get the treaty ratified by the end of next year.
The only surprise was that the British raised a last-minute hitch. Gordon Brown feared the British opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights might be compromised by concessions to the Irish on workers' rights. In the event, the guarantees given to Cowen on workers' rights were not accorded the legal strength of those on neutrality, tax and abortion and that was enough to keep Brown happy. The detail of the legal guarantees will be worked out over the next six months but, on the basis of the assurances he has got, Cowen was willing to give the commitment to hold another referendum before the end of October next year.
The Taoiseach can thank president Nicolas Sarkozy for ensuring that everything went smoothly for him in Brussels. The French leader has run a highly successful presidency of the EU and, after an initial bout of impatience at the Irish rejection of the treaty, went out of his way to find a formula to meet Irish concerns.
True to form, Sarkozy brought Cowen and Brown together yesterday morning to make sure they patched up their differences over the Irish guarantees.
Whether the Irish electorate will reciprocate when it comes to the referendum next October is a moot point. The legal guarantees on neutrality, abortion, tax and social issues are all very fine but they will be dismissed as irrelevant by No campaigners as they do not involve any change to the treaty itself. The reason the workers' rights concession was not given legal standing is that it would have potentially involved a treaty change.
Assuming the legal guarantees are agreed over the next six months, they will be included in a protocol added to the ratification treaty for the accession of Croatia in a couple of years' time. Cowen is hoping that, as the guarantees are hammered out in detail over the next six months, they will put to bed, one by one, the scares raised by No campaigners during the first referendum campaign.
The major concession already nailed down is the retention of a commissioner by all member states. This may well rebound on us in the long term. The move will inevitably damage the efficiency of the commission, leading to more influence being concentrated in the hands of the big three powers, Germany, France and Britain.
Many of the smaller EU states are keenly aware of the damage the decision to expand the commission is likely to do to their interests. They were persuaded in the run-up to the summit that it is a price worth paying to get the treaty ratified in Ireland.
The fundamental problem about the second Lisbon referendum for slow Irish learners is that there is obviously no guarantee it will be carried. While the rapid deterioration of the economy over the past six months may serve as a wake-up call to the electorate about how dangerous isolation can be, it could equally serve to sour the mood even further.
The problem about a referendum next October is that by the time it comes around an already deeply unpopular government may have lost the final shreds of its authority. Persuading people to vote Yes after a few more rounds of botched public spending cuts could well be beyond the Coalition.
That is why the only chance of success lies in a co-ordinated cross-party Yes campaign involving a huge effort by Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour to persuade the voters just how vital it is for the country that they vote for the Lisbon Treaty.
One of the reasons why the first campaign was lost was that Cowen issued a gratuitous insult to Fine Gael voters at a time when every potential Yes voter needed to be brought on side. The danger now is that a resurgent Fine Gael might be tempted to put party politics first, as Fianna Fáil would certainly do if they were in opposition.
Earlier this week, Enda Kenny launched a strong attack on the Taoiseach in the Dáil for not briefing him over the past few weeks about the nature of the guarantees being sought from the other EU countries. Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin protested that it has never been the practice for the Government to brief the Opposition while a deal is still being negotiated.
Normal practice, however, should be no guide to behaviour in current circumstances. Cowen and Kenny desperately need to pull together on the treaty in the interests of the country. Otherwise a second referendum defeat is certain.
The Taoiseach recognised this yesterday by pledging to brief Kenny and Eamon Gilmore on the outcome of the summit and stressing that the treaty was a national issue of huge importance to Ireland that was above party politics.
Kenny had a nice swipe at Declan Ganley of Libertas when both of them were in Brussels on Thursday when he wondered aloud if the Libertas founder had the courage to contest the European elections in Ireland West, as the old Connacht-Ulster constituency is now called.
Ganley had said he would like to contest the election and, of course, there is nothing to stop him - except the fear of losing. Victory would pave the way for another No success in October but defeat could puncture the expensive bubble he created last June and pave the way for a successful Yes campaign in the autumn.