The Irish and British governments are united in their determination to ensure the implementation of the Belfast Agreement in all its aspects. That is the core political reality around which urgent bi-lateral discussions will take place with the Northern Ireland pro-Agreement parties during the coming weeks. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, still share the belief that a window of opportunity exists on this side of Easter in which an inclusive Northern Ireland executive could be reestablished, provided the IRA declares an end to violence and gives certain firm undertakings in relation to arms decommissioning.
Some people may regard this view as unduly optimistic, following the double rebuff suffered by the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr David Trimble, last Saturday. There is no concealing the damage done to Mr Trimble's authority by the anti-Agreement faction within his party. Mr Trimble's enemies chose his willingness to give republicans another chance to participate in an executive government and the highly-charged emotions swirling around reform of the RUC as the grounds on which they would defeat or, failing that, frustrate his leadership.
The Rev Martin Smyth polled much better than expected in his direct challenge for the leadership. He took 43 per cent of the vote, a single point higher than the percentage of Ulster Unionist Council members who opposed entry to a power-sharing executive with Sinn Fein last November. And Mr Trimble and his Assembly supporters failed to deflect Mr David Burnside's motion which linked the future establishment of an executive with a requirement that the name and symbols of the RUC be retained.
In spite of that, Mr Trimble is still party leader. And the dream of a new and inclusive dispensation in Northern Ireland, provided for by the Belfast Agreement and supported overwhelmingly by the electorate on both sides of the Border, is still alive. Block votes from the Orange Order and university students were powerful factors behind the weekend No campaign. But Mr Trimble still enjoys the support of the bulk of party activists. And he cannot be challenged for the top position for at least another year. Some of his supporters have even suggested that if a sufficiently strong decommissioning package could be secured, the Burnside motion would be ignored.
All of these developments refocus attention on the IRA and on the ability of Sinn Fein to secure movement on the decommissioning issue, as provided for in the Belfast Agreement. Immediately before the suspension of the Northern executive last month, General De Chastelain was told the IRA was prepared to consider how arms and explosives might be put beyond use in the context of the full implementation of the Agreement. Since then, the two Governments have sought to build on that advance and to expand the political terms in which the decommissioning issue could be considered. They have also made it plain that RUC reforms will be implemented as a priority.
There is not much time available if an inclusive executive is to be re-established in advance of the season for marches and commemorations. The ability of republicans to show flexibility will become hamstrung by traditional Easter ceremonies in a few short weeks. Soon afterwards, unionist marches will begin to close off dialogue from the other side. No matter what the difficulties, however, Northern politicians and the two governments have an obligation to give effect to the clearly expressed wishes of the people. The inclusive formula of the Belfast Agreement is the future. It must be made to work.