Neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael can veto a presidential election, writesJim Duffy.
It remains the dream scenario for Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny: Mary McAleese announces that she will seek a second term as President. No one opposes it. Mary nominates herself and becomes President again, without the hassle and expense of an election.
In the old days that was easy enough to deliver. For most of the last 50 years only two parties were big enough to nominate candidates. So if they decided they didn't want an election they could shaft everyone who wanted to run - Alfie Byrne, Patrick MacCartan (in 1959), Eoin (the Pope) O'Mahony, Seán MacBride, etc. - and put their agreed man in.
But the days when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could act as gatekeepers and veto presidential elections, if they didn't want them, are over. Now Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are joined by two others who can reach the magic 20 Oireachtas members needed to nominate candidates.
First there is Labour. It isn't the first time Labour has been able to nominate candidates. But it may well be a double-edged sword for the party. For it can no longer rely on the traditional excuse, "We don't have the numbers to nominate," to get away from a presidential race it might prefer to avoid. Which may mean that even if it doesn't want to, Labour might find it hard not to run a candidate.
It would be a brave leader indeed who would tell Labour members that their beloved Michael D. Higgins would not be allowed be the party candidate, especially when that would mean the automatic re-election as President of someone whose views on part of the liberal agenda radical elements in Labour find it hard to stomach.
Then there's the "I" word that sends shivers down the spine of the main parties - independents. Together the independents plus smaller parties in the Dáil and Seanad have the required numbers to nominate a candidate. Which opens up the prospect of someone like David Norris, or some party like Sinn Féin or the Greens, putting together enough support to get nominated.
As an Oireachtas member can nominate only one candidate, only one independent candidate could get the nomination, opening up a battle royal between Sinn Féin, the Greens and others to get their man or woman through as the candidate.
But the loser can always go to the local councils for a nomination. The local government route (four councils) used to be dormant, as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael controlled the councils. In 1997 this became a live route. It could be more so this time if the local elections throw up a large number of independents who hold the balance of power, or take power in individual councils. Already one independent, Kevin Lee, has begun work on a presidential bid, and others may follow.
All of which means that Bertie's and Enda's dream of an uncontested presidential election could easily slip into a nightmare of a contest. If a contest arises, it would be exceptionally difficult for Mrs McAleese to run as anything but a Fianna Fáil candidate.
Presidential elections are extremely expensive, time-consuming, labour-intensive affairs. In any contest, the President would need a local network of campaigners, a national headquarters, a massive budget, a campaign press office, etc. No President could hope to set up such a campaign structure. They would have to get it elsewhere, and the only place you get that is a political party. That is why President de Valera ran as a Fianna Fáil candidate in the 1966 presidential contest and why Seán T. O'Kelly, when he thought there might be a contest, considered it in 1952.
So if the independents decide they are going to put someone into the race, and if Labour can't find a way of saying no to Michael D., Mrs McAleese would have little option but to turn to Fianna Fáil. Which would leave Enda Kenny and Fine Gael with a nightmare scenario. The last thing he wants is a costly presidential election and (except in 1966) Fine Gael has a habit of doing badly in them. But if Labour, the independents, a Green or Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil are all in, he can't not run a Fine Gael candidate.
For a party devastated in the 2002 general election, it cannot afford to look like a political irrelevance. Supporting a Fianna Fáil candidate, even one that had nominated herself, would be political dynamite. It would reopen catcalls of "so why don't you simply merge with Fianna Fáil?" and undermine its ability to attack its presidential coalition bedfellows in the Dáil. Support for Labour would give the impression that Labour was now the dominant opposition party and Fine Gael the junior partners.
The final twist for Fine Gael is that presidential elections tend to shape Irish politics in unexpected ways. The 1948 first inter-party government was in effect conceived through cross-party anti-Fianna Fáil voting patterns in the 1945 presidential election. "New" Fine Gael with its Just Society was baptised by Tom O'Higgins's near victory in 1966. Mary Robinson's election shaped the 1990s and boosted Labour. And choosing McAleese over Reynolds helped Ahern ditch the Reynolds-years baggage.
Which may mean that if there is a contest (and that is outside its control), Fine Gael will have no option but to get involved or be left behind and forgotten about. Fine Gael may see a presidential election as the last thing it needs.
But it isn't. Far worse would be opting out of a national election for the first time and ending up looking like a political chicken on the sidelines, while the voters and the media focus their attentions on everyone else.
Jim Duffy is a political commentator.