Duisenberg To Go

Mr Wim Duisenberg's announcement yesterday that he will resign as President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in July next year…

Mr Wim Duisenberg's announcement yesterday that he will resign as President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in July next year, puts a welcome end to uncertainty about how long he intends to stay in the job. But inevitably his departure has reopened the question of who will succeed him.

It is vital for the stability and reputation of the ECB, and the euro, that there should be no unseemly political quarrel about this - despite the high stakes involved. There is plenty of time for a smooth transition in a period which will be central for the performance and reputation of the new currency.

Mr Duisenberg has had a difficult term in office so far, despite his successful steering of the euro's introduction - and a poor press arising from several unnecessary gaffes about interest-rate policy. Such an unprecedented experiment in supranational financial governance was bound to have its hiccups. The ECB is still going through a learning curve as an institution, notably in its communications with the public and the financial markets. Mr Duisenberg's strictly orthodox approach to the business of controlling inflation - the ECB's principal mandate - has compensated for such lapses of judgment.

This has been seen in his attitude towards the Stability and Growth Pact as it applies to countries such as Germany and Portugal, which are coming close to breaching the three per cent limit on budgetary deficits. Mr Duisenberg strongly supports the European Commission's role in preparing warnings or reprimands about them, even at the risk of political embarrassment or possible effects on the credibility of the euro. The next few days will determine whether Germany manages to lobby effectively against a reprimand from the Ecofin council.

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That assertion of independence from political pressure has been a valuable hallmark of Mr Duisenberg's term in office. While its orthodoxy may be questioned as too limited - notably as it relates to broader questions of economic governance - the fundamental commitment to low inflation, political independence and a cautious interest rate policy stands as a solid achievement. The euro's weakness compared to the dollar has had more to do with economic fundamentals than with Mr Duisenberg's phlegmatic style. His expectation that the eurozone economies, and the euro, will pick up later in the year - and the new currency with them - appear to be well-founded.