Fascinating, but uninspiring. That seems to sum up the US presidential election for many. The closeness of the contest makes for an exciting finale, but neither Mr Al Gore nor Mr George W. Bush inspires passionate commitment. Nevertheless it would be a mistake to conclude that it makes little difference who wins the contest for the most powerful office in the world tomorrow. US voters have some clearcut choices to make in terms of policy and political competence. How they decide will affect their own country and the outside world in critically important respects.
The major domestic issues in this campaign concern how the federal government should help US families secure decent education, healthcare and retirement. Abortion, states' rights, the composition of the Supreme Court, the environment and gun control are also at issue. The country faces crucial choices as the baby-boom generation approaches older age; 45 million people remain uninsured for healthcare and the US lags behind Europe and Asia in educational standards. Taxation policy and economic management are closely tied in with these issues. Mr Bush offers big tax cuts, in line with his philosophy of smaller government and privatised initiative. While there are original ideas here, Mr Bush's responses to Mr Gore's repeated case that this would disproportionately benefit the wealthy has been unconvincing.
Mr Gore's further point that such a tax strategy could undermine the unprecedented economic growth bequeathed from the Clinton period is also well taken. The US economy is bound to adjust at some stage; the question is whether that happens rapidly through a sharp recession and a stock market crash or gradually, as other world regions take up the role of growth pole. Responding to such a change will be a crucial test for whoever wins this election. There will be temptations towards protectionism, but both men have a good record on keeping trade open. This is a vital matter for Ireland, which is so dependent on US investment and continued economic buoyancy.
Mr Gore has the edge on foreign policy, where he has more of the necessary knowledge and experience. Changing US relations with Europe will be a key element over the next presidential term. Unsurprisingly most European governments would prefer a Gore victory, seen as maintaining continuity and a potentially more harmonious transition to more equality in the relationship. Mr Bush, by contrast, would conduct a radical review of US troop commitments in Europe and enthusiastically supports a national missile defence, which would upset US relations with allies and adversaries alike.
From Ireland's point of view much depends on how a new US administration would respond to the Northern Ireland peace process. Continuity with the unprecedentedly involved Clinton policy would be beneficial, but unrealistic to expect.
The US system of government divides power between President and Congress. Political judgments cannot, therefore, be made on the basis of policies alone, which can be put aside or amended beyond recognition. US voters, or rather the 50 per cent or so of them who turn out, will choose between the candidates on the basis of personality and competence as well as ideological disposition. Mr Bush is marginally the favourite to win tomorrow, based as much on his trustworthiness and amiability as his platform. But Mr Gore could be the better choice, based on his experience, competence and positions on domestic and foreign policy.