ANALYSIS:The recession is over. But unemployment and future risks remain
ECONOMIC GROWTH has returned. But the rebound will be gradual and prospects for jobs are poor. And that’s if nothing goes wrong. Risks to the recovery abound at home and abroad.
In the first three months of the year, the economy started to expand again after suffering the largest contraction of any developed economy.
The best news came from exports. Foreign sales of Irish goods and services powered ahead in the first three months, and a weaker euro since then should give added impetus.
Amid the gloom, it is worth remembering that high-end manufacturers and sellers of internationally traded services in Ireland remain world-beaters. And it was their successes in 2009 that resulted in Ireland clawing back some of the global market share that has been lost over the past decade.
The domestic economy, by contrast, remains in a slump. Households were still cutting their consumption spending in the first three months of the year. So was the Government. And everyone continues to slash their investment spending – on buildings, on roads and on plant and machinery.
If there is hope for recovery in any of these components of growth, it is in spending by individuals on consumer goods and services. This is the most important single component of any economy. Although it continued to shrink (marginally) in the first quarter, other more timely indicators give cause to believe that the momentum behind private spending is building gradually.
In April, the volume of retail sales touched a 16-month high. In April-May, VAT returns were up 3.6 per cent on the February-March period. And in June, the (admittedly not very reliable) ESRI/KBC consumer confidence and expectations indices both hit their highest levels since 2007.
But any recovery in household consumption will be tentative at best. Aggregate incomes are unlikely to grow in the near future, as wages and the numbers of people earning them continue to stagnate or shrink. Further dampening consumption growth will be the high percentage of incomes which will not be spent but used by households to pay down debt.
If economic growth has resumed, jobs growth has not. Nor can it be expected to do so until next year at the earliest.
The construction sector has shrunk massively. In the first three months of the year, quarterly housing completions plumbed depths recorded only twice before in the 35-year history of the data series. In April, they fell further, to stand at 1,166, almost one-tenth of their monthly peak at the end of 2006.
Despite this, the industry still has a way to go before it hits bottom. With an oversupply of homes and a government whose empty coffers prevent it from spending on much extra infrastructure, there is little going into the industry’s new orders pipeline.
Despite a massive contraction in construction activity, 130,000 people were still employed in the sector at last count, down from a peak of 270,000. It seems inevitable that many more jobs are still to be lost in construction.
Jobs will also go elsewhere. Remarkably, since the property bust and banking crisis, the numbers at work in the “financial, insurance and real estate services” category of employment have actually increased. With wholesale restructuring of the banks rapidly coming down the line, this is set to change soon.
The increase in employment in the public sector has been just as remarkable as that of financial services and property. Although the Government’s freeze on hiring has had no net impact to date, it will surely begin soon to bear down on numbers as those who depart are not replaced.
Although cold comfort to those who are likely to lose their jobs over the rest of the year, the beginnings of a recovery in economic activity at least give hope that new employment opportunities will arise by next year.
But that is only if there is not a renewed downturn or “double dip” in the economy. There are currently an unusually large number of risks that could derail the recovery.
If the weakening of the euro gives short-term relief to those firms struggling to compete in foreign markets, the reason for that weakness gives cause for wider concern. Despite the massive and unprecedented measures announced by EU countries in May and the previously unimaginable interventions of the European Central Bank, the crisis afflicting the fiscally weak member states of the euro area has not been calmed.
Ireland and Portugal – the two countries most at risk – now pay interest on their new borrowings in excess of that paid by Greece under the terms of its bailout. Such rates of interest are not sustainable. They create a debt dynamic that will spiral out of control. If it comes to having to be bailed out, further austerity measures are likely, in addition to those already slated for forthcoming budgets.
That would almost certainly hinder recovery. The collateral damage of any such a bailout could derail it. If a bailout for one or more euro zone country becomes necessary, it could trigger another full-scale panic in financial markets of the kind seen in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, such is the extreme fragility of those markets now. This would gravely worsen the problems afflicting banks.
But even if Ireland and other weak euro zone countries can avoid having to be rescued, Irish and many European banks remain chronically weak and could face crisis anyway in the months ahead.
In a nutshell, the fiscal and banking crises have become one. A sovereign debt crisis could trigger a banking crisis. And a banking crisis could trigger a sovereign debt crisis.
But none of this, it should be stressed, is inevitable. These are risks rather than certainties. If they do not come to pass, Ireland’s economy should remain on the path to recovery, however slow and gradual.
Dan O’Brien is Economics Editor