One thing the UK's European partners cannot control is the speed with which the former invokes EU treaty Article 50 to set in train Brexit talks. Germany's Chancellor Merkel, determined to appear helpful, acknowledged as much in her meeting in Berlin on Wednesday with new British Prime Minister Theresa May. May has said it will now be the New Year.
“Nobody wants things to be up in the air,” Merkel said, hinting at some impatience, and adding that the UK must produce a timeline. In Dublin yesterday there was “as soon as possible” from Taoiseach Enda Kenny and French President François Hollande, seen by some as marginal toughening of the Irish position.
Yet jousting over the Article 50 timing issue is a bit of a sideshow. Far more important, as Merkel intimated, is that the UK works out what the hell it wants. We are still none the wiser in spite of tangible warmth between May and Merkel.
“It is to our advantage to have the UK define its negotiating stance in great detail and clarity,” the Chancellor said, adding the common sense observation that talks will be about striking the best balance between migration and trade. But it’s more substantive than anything May has said.
However, the PM’s Berlin visit – her first foreign trip – was a sign of the importance she places on the issue and an indication that she intends to steer the course of talks personally. Same message to Hollande last night in Paris – perhaps a less-friendly encounter but the import both ways will essentially have been the same. Merkel insisted she was not negotiating.
There is a strong consensus that no formal or informal talks on the substance of Brexit can take place until Article 50 is invoked. But things will not exactly stand still while the UK works out its position.
There will have to be “meta-talks”, talks about talks, not least about reaching a common understanding on the meaning of the untested Article 50 and how the process will proceed, on clarity about the separation of talks on the departure itself and on the subsequent trade relationship, and their respective timeframes.
What will happen between the UK withdrawal from the EU and agreement on a new trade deal, a process that some have been suggesting could take 10 years?
Some interim UK disengagement from EU decision-making structures and from specific decisions is underway. It has passed the baton of its 2017 presidency to Belgium. There will have to be discussions on limiting UK voting on legislation it will not be subject to.
From an Irish perspective there have been welcome straws in the wind – Hollande's willingness to accept a case for a special strand in negotiations on the Peace Process and the Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain; and a commitment in the Commons by Northern Secretary James Brokenshire to make the Common Travel Area's retention a priority.