New leaders maybe, but very much the old story. The DUP is led into the North's Assembly elections for the first time by Arlene Foster, the SDLP by Colum Eastwood, while this is also Mike Nesbitt's first assembly campaign as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). But the subtext of the elections is that politics remains resolutely defined by the sectarian divide – its two camps, as ever, most preoccupied, despite rhetoric and manifestos crammed with parochial concerns, with competing amongst themselves for leadership of their respective communities .
The “normal” politics of ideological difference and parish pump concerns is still a fragile, struggling flower in the bed of Northern politics. But 108 members – six in each of 18 constituencies – will be elected to the Assembly on May 5th.
The DUP warns unionist voters of the “dangerous” prospect that a small swing to Sinn Féin from the DUP – in a direct form, somewhat improbable – would see Martin McGuinness end up as first minister. It is a rallying cry meant not so much to meet that challenge, but to prise nervous unionists from the UUP. In the last Assembly elections in 2011 the DUP took 38 seats to Sinn Féin’s 29, although in the 2014 locals and Europeans Sinn Féin won more votes than the DUP and was just 8,000 behind it in last year’s Westminster vote. STV voting is unlikely, however, to give Sinn Féin the sort of bonus that it would need.
The psychological importance of ownership of the “first minister” title remains very much emblematic of the sorry persistence of tribal politics – unionism would be badly shaken by the idea of a nationalist “majority”. Sinn Féin professes not to be unduly worried about it, and promises to share the title if it wins – such pseudo-magnanimity does not cut much ice.
Within the tribes the old predominances may be a bit more shaky. The SDLP has fresh energy; Mike Nesbitt’s outgoing personality and moderation has refreshed the UUP brand; and Sinn Féin may even lose a seat on its left to People before Profit in its West Belfast heartland. Alliance is well placed to hold its eight seats and may on a good day even pass out the SDLP.
The peripheral parties with solitary representatives, the Traditional Ulster Voice (TUV) , Ukip, and the Greens, are not expected to make significant breakthroughs.
Being fought alongside the Assembly election, albeit largely sotto voce, is the referendum on Britain's EU membership. Polls suggest a majority will join Scotland in opposing Brexit. Only the unionist camp is divided, with the UUP alone supporting the "remain" case. Talk of new border posts and the loss of massive farm support are dismissed as fearmongering. And we don't do fear in Northern Ireland, after all, not any more. Well, there's just that matter of who is poised to be first minister...