A new kind of politics for Spain was heralded four years ago today by the 15th of May movement, when masses of citizens initiated a summer of discontent by occupying landmark city centre sites. This movement expressed widely felt anger at the post-crisis austerity policies of the Socialist Party (PSOE) government. That anger grew when the PSOE was replaced by the right-wing Partido Popular, and deeper spending cuts critically damaged the country's social fabric.
15-M supporters blamed the entire establishment for unsustainable conditions: 50 per cent youth unemployment, thousands of family evictions after a housing bubble, and corruption scandals in both political parties. Today that discontent has found more conventional political expression in a new political party, Podemos, which faces one of its first big national tests in municipal elections on Sunday May 24th. Founded 16 months ago, the party has enjoyed an exceptionally rapid rise, yet there are already indications that it may have peaked in popularity, after diluting some of its radical policies.
Its commitment to default on public debt has disappeared, suspension of all foreclosures has been replaced with a call for negotiated settlements, and a universal basic state payment demand has morphed into a small increase in minimum wages. Juan Carlos Monedero, a senior Podemos leader formerly associated with the populist Chávez regime in Venezuela, has resigned, apparently in protest. An opinion poll in January gave Podemos almost 25 per cent support, just behind the PP and ahead of the PSOE. This month it slipped back to third place at 16 per cent, while another new party, the centre-right Ciudadanos ("Citizens") surged from 3 per cent to 13 per cent. Podemos seems to have lost more votes on the left than it has gained by approaching the centre, and yet it may also have been damaged by the shaky performance Syriza in Greece.
The Spanish political deck has been dramatically reshuffled, but how the cards will fall remains highly unpredictable.