A rise in the number of Covid-19 patients in Irish hospitals is a reminder that the virus continues to put real pressure on the health system and that planning for a sudden worsening of the epidemic must continue.
A combination of mass vaccination, infection-produced immunity and the dominance of the comparatively mild Omicron variant have allowed Government to lift nearly all public health restrictions. But the virus, though leading to less severe outcomes in general, has not been eradicated and still poses serious risks to many people. In the last week, the number of people with Covid-19 in the Republic’s hospitals has risen by more than 30 per cent. There were 829 people with the virus in hospital on Monday, the highest total in six weeks. The increase is likely to be connected to the loosening of public health guidelines and the fall in behavioural caution. There is no evidence to suggest that it marks the beginning of a big new wave, but it could leave the country stuck at a high plateau of cases, as occurred with the Delta variant last year. While that in itself will not necessitate any shift in policy, it shows that hospitals will continue to be under strain in dealing with Covid long after most people have gotten on with their pre-pandemic lives.
With Covid still running rampant in many parts of the world, the risk of a mutation producing a new and more virulent strain remains ever-present. Even without that happening, there are risks Government must plan for. One is a sudden waning of vaccine protection. If that were to push the infection fatality rate higher, then it would require a new iteration of the national vaccination campaign, perhaps targeted at older or more vulnerable people. It could also create a surge in demand for testing centres that have been scaled back in recent weeks. With vaccination and testing, the pattern has been that structures are slow to scale up but efficient when they hit their stride. Investment in contingency planning for boosters and community testing now could ensure the country does not get caught on the back foot if the situation worsens later in the year.