Binyamin Netanyahu had never been happy to promise Benny Gantz his job as prime minister as part of the rotating agreement that secured his own continued rule and Gantz a role as defence minister. And Gantz was unwise, as he was warned at the time – Leo Varadkar please note – to take Israel's longest serving prime minister's promise to vacate at face value. No-one could be surprised that the opportunity of the country's so-far successful vaccine rollout would be seized by Netanyahu to plunge it tomorrow into its fourth election in two years, an election which more than any other so far revolves around the issue of his future.
But it is far from clear that the effective management of the rollout, far ahead of the rest of the world, will be enough to guarantee "Bibi" a fifth term, and, just as importantly for him, continued protection from the looming prosecutions for corruption. Indeed his own Likud party, increasingly seen even by its supporters as merely a vehicle for protecting the PM, has been hard hit by attempts by him to build alliances on the far-right with two ultra-orthodox parties whose supporters have been widely panned for flouting lockdown rules.
Polling suggests that Likud may only take 30 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, making the challenge of coalition building for a majority with the country’s myriad parties harder than ever, and gridlock near inevitable.
Once again an Israeli election will unroll in which the plight of the Palestinians is almost entirely sidelined
For the first time in Israeli electoral history, the main challengers to Bibi's continued reign will come from further to the right, but the breakaways from Likud have yet to ignite popular enthusiasm and, despite their promises, may end up rallying to put him back in power. The centre Yesh Atid, led by former TV anchor Yair Lapid, although running second to Likud in the polls, appears most unlikely to be able to put together a majority coalition – former defence minister Naftali Bennett, for one, has made clear that his religious Yamina party will not sit in a government with Lapid as prime minister.
Personal intervention
Netanyahu has struggled to expand his campaign beyond the pandemic issue though his personal intervention to secure supplies from the CEO of Pfizer has helped. A hamfisted attempt by him to overplay Israel's recent rapprochement with the UAE has backfired because the emirates objected to being used as pawns in a local political campaign.
And so, to the distress of their friends and allies around the world, once again an Israeli election will unroll in which the plight of the Palestinians is almost entirely sidelined. Although the change in the US administration may well now stay a re-elected Netanyahu’s hand over his more extravagant ambitions, like the now-deferred plans for annexation of the West Bank, the prospects of any positive initiatives arising out of tomorrow’s voting remain dim.