The best interests of the people of Northern Ireland have once again taken second place behind the needs of politicians anxious about their electoral prospects. The latest moves by the DUP, which bring further instability and uncertainty to the North, are driven by the forthcoming Assembly elections, which opinion polls suggest could result in losses for the biggest unionist party and its eclipse by Sinn Féin as the largest grouping at Stormont.
Having supported Brexit, the DUP has been unable to cope with its consequences. The announcement by Edwin Poots, the agriculture minister, that he was instructing that special checks on agricultural products entering the North from Britain should stop, was a clear breach of the Northern Ireland Protocol. It was a stunt. Progress is being made in talks between the EU and UK to iron out problems with the checks on goods entering the North from Britain, which were put in place to avoid a hard trade border on the island. As of yesterday the checks were continuing but the situation remains unclear.
Significant measures to ease the burden of these checks remain possible, but it is their symbolic, more than practical importance which appears to be upsetting the DUP.
Still the DUP continues to ignore the potential the protocol offers to attract new investment to Northern Ireland through the unique ability it offers for free trade in goods with both the British and EU markets. If indeed the protocol was “torn up” and the checks ended – as the DUP insists it wants – Northern Ireland would lose its unfettered access to EU markets. The vast majority of its businesses are crying out for stability and practical solutions.
It is difficult not to conclude that the DUP, through its attempt to halt checks on goods and the withdrawal of first minister Paul Givan, is seeking to position itself to claim credit for the EU-UK deal it knows is within reach. That, it believes, would help shore up its support at a time when it faces a three-way battle for unionist votes with the Ulster Unionist Party and Traditional Unionist Voice.
The damage caused by Givan’s resignation will be contained somewhat by a new law, about to be passed at Westminister, which will allow the Assembly to continue for an initial six-week period, with possible further extension. But any new decisions by the Executive will now be put on hold, including a three-year budget and changes to Covid-19 public health restrictions.
The DUP has concluded that leaving Northern Ireland without a functioning government is a price worth paying for its own electoral recovery. But it is playing a dangerous game in the loss of trust among the key parties. And recent history shows that it is easy to bring down the Executive but much more difficult to restart it.