The course of the Ukraine war has confounded some of the protagonists' expectations. Key European capitals did not expect Russia to launch an all-out invasion. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy's concurred with that analysis, at least in public, until the last minute. The United States did foresee Vladimir Putin's war, but mistakenly believed Russian forces would quickly overwhelm Ukrainian defences. The biggest miscalculations were those of Putin himself, who failed to anticipate either the strength of the Ukrainian resistance or the West's willingness to turn Russia into a pariah state.
Now, with Ukrainians putting up fierce resistance and Russian troops bogged down outside the major cities, all the key players are frantically trying to revise their calculations and identify possible routes towards a ceasefire. Nato and Russia have no intention of going to war with one another, but in the current chaotic situation the danger of miscalculation or even deliberate provocation spilling over into a broader conflict between the two nuclear-armed powers will preoccupy leaders on both sides. Ensuring lines of communication remain open, at diplomatic and military levels, is therefore essential.
The endgame depends on Putin's war aims, and on how he responds to his stalling military campaign, which has been beset by intelligence failures, logistical shortcomings and strategic mistakes. The general view is that he will respond to those embarrassments by doubling down, escalating the aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities and showing even less regard for civilian lives. The history of Russian assaults in Syria and Chechnya on Putin's watch – as well as atrocities in Ukraine itself in recent days – tells us of the horrors Moscow is willing to inflict on the innocent.
At the same time, it must already be clear to the Kremlin that, while it may score some tactical gains with further escalation, it cannot win this war. A long-term occupation against the will of Ukrainians will be impossible, and the combination of that strong opposition and the flow of foreign arms into the country guarantees that any Russian attempt at occupation will result in a long insurgency. Meanwhile, Putin has seldom been this vulnerable. Within Russia, as sanctions reach deep into the economy and affect ordinary people’s living standards, he is bound to come under pressure to strike a deal to end the war.
That is why the West must continue to work diplomatic channels. Moscow has indicated no serious intent to negotiate, and as a result the United States has seen little point in trying to talk. But while the prospect of a ceasefire in the short-term may seem remote, there will come a point where Putin needs an off-ramp. The West can keep applying pressure on Putin while showing him that a negotiated peace is there for the taking.