Micheál Martin appears determined to drag out the government formation process – or to collapse it – in order to show Fianna Fáil supporters how difficult it is to do a deal with Fine Gael. But you can only circle that mulberry bush so many times before the public loses patience. That time will arrive next week when the Dáil fails, for a second time, to appoint a taoiseach. In recognition of that eventuality, Mr Martin has indicated he will talk to Enda Kenny following the inconclusive vote.
As a charade, it wouldn’t win a prize for originality. But the Fianna Fáil leader is playing a weak hand in a tricky situation. For historic and cultural reasons, cooperation with Fine Gael in government is anathema to some of his supporters. They have no difficulty in divvying up jobs at council level with their erstwhile enemies. But the Dáil, apparently, is off-limits.
Mr Martin rejected a coalition arrangement while declining to say whether he would support a Fine Gael-led minority government. This week, he stuck another spoke into Fine Gael’s wheel by elevating the suspension of water charges and a scrapping of the utility to red line status, even as he told householders to pay their bills. That could become a make-or-break issue. Sinn Féin and left-wing groups will seek the abolition of water charges in a Dáil vote and – with an eye to an early election – Fianna Fáil is unlikely to concede its populist position.
Consistency is not to be looked for in the present situation. Mr Martin told supporters he wished to lead a government. But on a “good day” Fianna Fáil expected to win fewer than 40 seats, so where were the additional 30-plus TDs to come from?
He would not share in government with Fine Gael. And Sinn Féin was unfit for office. Independents and Others made up such disparate groupings that the chance of securing coherent support was miniscule. Eventually, Fianna Fáil did better than expected in the election but the tyranny of Dáil numbers cast Mr Martin in the role of facilitator, rather than leader. And he must manage that reality.
Enda Kenny attempted to leverage Fine Gael’s position as the largest party by engaging in extensive talks with smaller parties and Independents. The plan was to present Fianna Fáil with a broad political programme and to seek its support for a minority Fine Gael-led government. Of course, terms and conditions would also apply to prevent an early election.
The instability inherent in such arrangements should become obvious in the vote for Taoiseach next Wednesday. The options now facing Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil supporters – coalition, support for a minority government or fresh elections – all contain unpalatable features. They should inhale deeply and get on with it.