If it is successful in its objective of ousting Islamic State (IS) from Iraq's second city of Mosul, the offensive begun last week can effectively mark the the beginning of the end of that country's years of bloody war. There is a huge amount at stake in the battle now under way but also terrible dangers in both success and failure. And IS has had time to prepare its defences – Mosul will not be surrendered cheaply.
The real prize, the expulsion of 3,000-5,000 IS fighters from its last significant urban stronghold in Iraq and the place where in July 2014 it declared its "caliphate", would be a major psychological and strategic setback to the organisation and shift the focus ever more to its battle for Syria. But the forces that make up the onslaught represent an uneasy coalition whose common purpose against IS is likely to dissolve fast in victory.
The backbone of the 30,000-strong force is the Iraqi army, spearheaded by its elite counterterrorism special forces and federal police, newly trained by the US, and supported by its jets. Alongside are Kurdish peshmerga from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, whose territorial ambitions worry Baghdad, and Shia militia forces whose traditional sectarian hatred of Mosul’s Sunnis has led many to warn of dangers of a sectarian bloodbath when the city is taken. The involvement of other Kurdish fighters, seen by the Turks as terrorists, has also prompted the latter to bring several thousand troops into northern Iraq against Baghdad’s wishes. Once Mosul is taken who knows who will be shooting at whom.
There are also fears that prolonged fighting in the city may put trapped civilians at risk of starvation, while inadequate preparations for the inevitable flight of possibly hundreds of thousands of the city’s inhabitants are creating a massive humanitarian challenge.
“We come to rescue you and save you from the terrorism of Isis,” Iraq’s prime minister Haidar al Abadi promised Mosul’s beleaguered people in a broadcast last Monday. The UN and Iraq’s international allies must ensure that should not be to condemn them to an even worse fate.