Satisfaction with the Government’s performance has been rising steadily in line with a surge in economic activity since last March, but voters have differentiated between the coalition parties in terms of reward. While Fine Gael has seen its support grow by six points during the past nine months, to 30 per cent, voters have withheld approval from the Labour Party where support has languished at seven per cent.
The latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll shows no significant movement in support for any party since last September. What was promoted as a give-away budget did, it is true, see voting intentions favouring Fine Gael nudge upwards by two points, but Labour Party support actually fell by a single point. The electorate may be withholding judgment concerning its preferences for the policies and composition of the next government. That could explain why movements in support levels for all parties have remained within a statistical margin of error.
On the basis of these figures, the Government parties could not secure a Dáil majority and the Labour Party would lose many of its seats. The situation has been complicated by the insistence of both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin that they will not participate in government as a minority party. Neither group appears capable of putting together a government on the basis of current support levels: Fianna Fáil at 19 per cent (down one point since September) and Sinn Féin at 21 per cent (up two points) while support for ‘Independents and Others’ has fallen by two points to 23 per cent.
Efforts by Government ministers to agree on additional “sweeteners” in advance of the coming election would indicate their heightened awareness of public ambivalence. Freezing the property tax, restoring public sector pay and reducing or abolishing the universal social charge are all designed to attract public approval and to garner votes. But, given the electorate’s response to the recent budget, there is no guarantee such measures will deliver.
The background noise, however, in terms of satisfaction with the Government’s performance is the most positive in four years and Taoiseach Enda Kenny remains the most popular party leader. On the opposition benches, Sinn Féin has crept ahead of Fianna Fáil on the basis of party support while Gerry Adams just pipped Micheál Martin in the leadership popularity stakes. At regional level, Fine Gael has consolidated its position in Dublin, ahead of Sinn Féin and largely at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin appears to have put recent difficulties behind it and now exhibits a solid profile, exceeding 20 per cent, in all areas. That may not, however, translate into seats at election time.
In this fragmented situation, ‘Independents and Others’ offer a real prospect of contributing to the next government.