The US presidential campaign has become a contest to reinforce the mutual prejudices of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump about each other and their respective supporters. This week's themes are Clinton's health and Trump's tax payments, alongside the imputed racist attitudes and elitist affiliations of their support bases.
Her pneumonia attack is used to reinforce an image of untrustworthiness and his taxation affairs one of avoiding accountability. Less and less room is left in this slanging match for evidence-based consideration of public policy as the presidential debates loom.
After pulling ahead in the polls following the Democratic convention, Clinton’s lead has narrowed and this is now a really close battle for votes and states. Trump’s ability to command media headlines has continued, as he focuses his campaign proper on its initial support from relatively disadvantaged white voters who resent economic changes resulting from globalisation and accompanying openness to immigration.
From that base he now seeks to broaden his appeal programmatically; but his strategy is to maximise white support by encouraging those who usually do not vote to do so on this occasion. His effort to mobilise this constituency by personalised abuse together with the ill-founded insinuations and sly techniques of post-truth politics should not be underestimated. That approach is proving effective elsewhere in the world too.
Clinton’s response to this assault has revealed her strengths and weaknesses in equal measure. She is a tireless campaigner on policy issues, at her best when lacerating her opponent’s inconsistencies and conceits. Alongside that goes a caution in communicating her full message, a suspicion of media and reluctance to reveal details of awkward or embarrassing moments in her career.
The pneumonia episode highlights these shortcomings. It allows Trump to reinforce the lack of trust she bears and overlay it with a more focused allegation that she “lacks the mental and physical stamina” to be president. That is not convincing, but would be even less so were she to be more open about her medical record.
To describe half of Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables” with racist, sexist, homophobic and Islamophobic attitudes, however accurately, was ill-judged in this campaign setting of reinforced prejudice – though it highlights her reliance on black, Hispanic and women voters to secure victory.
The presidential debates will have an unprecedented audience this time as both candidates seek to optimise their support and mobilise their base. This leaves little scope for policy deliberation among undecided voters, despite the genuinely wide gulf between the programmes of the two candidates.