Boris Johnson has seen off a challenge to his leadership, but that vote of confidence from his parliamentary party has merely confirmed the impression that the British prime minister is entering the closing phase of his shambolic premiership.
Johnson described the result as decisive, but it was anything but. The scale of the internal opposition -–211 MPs voted for him, 148 against – was larger than either side expected, and it probably would have been bigger still had the dissidents waited until later this month, when the Conservative Party is expected to lose two byelections, to make their move. Johnson is now a zombie leader, in power but without the authority to run his ungovernable party, let alone his country. The only reason he remains in place is that his MPs cannot see who there is to replace him from within his lacklustre cabinet of loyalists.
The opposition to Johnson does not reside in any one faction in his party; it is a broad-based organic coalition that ranges from Remainers to Brexiteers, moderates to hardliners. Although some of his critics oppose him on policy, what unites them is a dislike for him personally. That means there is almost nothing Johnson can do to turn the tide in his favour. He will speak of charting a new policy course, but even if he were empowered to embark on a legislative blitz – on the contrary, he will now find it more difficult to win support for his plans – it would not matter anyway. Conservative MPs chose Johnson as their leader because, even though they knew he lacked the skills and character to run the United Kingdom, they felt their own prospects of winning seats were enhanced under his leadership. They were duly rewarded in the 2019 election.
Three years on, after a disgracefully-handled pandemic and the humiliations of Partygate, a mood of drift and decline has set in at the apex of the government. The Labour Party is growing in strength and the public has grown tired of Johnson’s hollow brand of politics. The Conservatives’ chief asset has become their biggest liability
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For Labour, the result of Sunday’s vote is ideal. It gives Keir Starmer ample ammunition while denying the Conservatives the opportunity to regroup under a new leader in preparation for the next election. It is also a good result for the Scottish nationalists and for Sinn Féin, which benefit from having the ineffective Johnson in power.
If it seemed until last week that the British government existed above all to keep Johnson in power, that will be even more apparent. Now more dependent on the Eurosceptic right in his party, he is likely to pursue his brinkmanship with the European Union, even if it leads to outright renunciation of the Northern Ireland protocol, triggering a trade war Britain cannot win. The longer Johnson tries to hold onto power, the heavier the price the UK and Ireland will pay.