Anecdotal evidence that Covid-19 is once again spreading widely in the community is confirmed by clear increases in all the key indicators. The proportion of positive PCR tests has increased from 12.5 per cent to 19 per cent over the past fortnight.
The number of people in hospital with Covid has risen from 167 at the end of May to 289 on Wednesday – a significant increase in just two weeks – while the numbers in ICU have increased from 18 to 27 in the same period. Any such increase is unwelcome, though it is noteworthy that at least half of these hospital and ICU cases are in people who were admitted for other reasons and tested positive in hospital.
The latest wave is not unexpected; specialists have warned that infection rates will ebb and flow, reflecting shifting immunity levels, social mixing trends and the spread of new variants. Each of those factors are almost certainly at play in Ireland, where mixing has returned to pre-pandemic levels, vaccine-acquired immunity is waning in some people and new Omicron sub-variants are circulating (even if the extent of that circulation is not clear given the low level of genomic sequencing being carried out in the State). Portugal attributes its current wave to these new strains. They have also been observed in the UK and the US. But even if they are more transmissible, there is no evidence that they are more lethal.
Thanks to mass vaccination and infection-acquired immunity, the current wave should be manageable for the most part. It would take a serious shift in the behaviour of the disease, such as the emergence of a vaccine-resistant or more virulent strain, to reopen discussion about public health restrictions. But the rise in infections is an important reminder that Covid remains a significant threat and will be for quite some time.
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And it is essential that its spread be contained, because while the disease will be little more than an inconvenience for many people, for others – including those with compromised immune systems – testing positive remains a dangerous and frightening prospect.