Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon knows that the UK Supreme Court is unlikely to rule that the Scottish parliament has the legal competence to organise an independence referendum. The law is clear and the court has form. Anything to do with the union is a Westminster prerogative and London is still saying a definite no.
But the court referral of a proposed bill that would set October 19th 2023 for a consultative popular vote will placate Sturgeon’s impatient party ranks, demonstrating that she is at least active on the issue. And – albeit a bluff – she is putting the issue centre stage again, setting down a marker that the next election will be devoted to independence, with her Scottish National Party (SNP) standing on the single issue.
With the Scottish Greens, who also favour a vote, the SNP government has a majority in the Edinburgh parliament. But polls show that eight years after the 2014 referendum rejected independence by 55 to 45 per cent, asking the same question – “Should Scotland be an independent country?” – there is yet no yes majority, and suggest that a majority also views another referendum as a divisive distraction.
Sturgeon has made clear that the SNP would have no truck with a Catalan-style DIY poll, insisting that only the strictly legal route is acceptable. So her options are limited – all roads lead back to persuading Boris Johnson to grant permission, as David Cameron did in 2014, for a so-called section 30 order authorising Edinburgh to hold the vote. He remains adamant that will not happen.
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The SNP case rings true that London’s obstruction increasingly undermines the claim that Scotland’s relationship with the UK is a harmonious voluntary union. Brexit, imposed against its will, has also fuelled the case for Scotland’s return to the EU. However, the SNP has yet to find convincing answers on what currency it would use, and how a Northern Ireland protocol-like arrangement could be negotiated. But the argument is under way and there is a sense that, however tactical, the debate is no longer theoretical.