It is no surprise the announcement that the major Metro project for Dublin – now called Metrolink – is to go ahead has been greeted with scepticism. The project, in various guises, has been worked on by governments for more than two decades, and announced on a number of occasions. Why should we believe it will happen this time?
The case for the Metro stands not only on its cost but on wider issues such as housing policy. The case for an underground link can only be made if there is a sufficient density of population along its 19km route. The current cost benefit analysis, we are told, indicates that the benefits are around 1.4 times the expected cost. This is not a compelling figure, given that we are told the likely cost is €9.5 billion, but could – in an adverse if unexpected scenario – exceed €20 billion.
Investment in public transport is a key part of climate change policy, and Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan argues that this further underpins the argument for going ahead. If Ireland succeeds in developing greater sourcing of “clean” electricity, then moving people on to public transport has clear advantages. The task for supporters of the Metrolink is to demonstrate that this project is the best way of doing this – and makes sense from a wider financial point of view. The project has passed the first hurdle in terms of Government approval, on the basis of the figures now outlined.
Under public sector spending procedures it will be assessed again on two more occasions, reflecting the final plans and the cost when tendering is completed. A realistic view will need to be taken here, given the seemingly inevitable cost overruns these major projects seem to always incur. Supporters of the project argue, with some justification, that Ireland is one of the few major cities without underground rail and without a train link to the city airport.
But the argument for the project, involving a 19km link from Swords to Charlemont, needs to be firmly based on an assessment of whether this is actually the best way to spend scarce State resources. The world has changed after Covid-19 and for now there are fewer commuter journeys. The Government can be forgiven for not yet saying much about what this might mean for its plans for people living in “dense” developments near their work and city centres, as the future of office work remains uncertain. But the case for the Metrolink is tied completely to this view of the future, which is now in question as remote working becomes more embedded. Ireland has a decidedly mixed record of planning and implementing major capital investment projects.
With the amount of money involved in Metrolink, the decisions as the project goes on need to be based on firm and hard-headed assessment.