In 1970, when Germany signed a contract for the first major Russia-Germany gas pipeline, its government promised Nato, worried about strategic dependence on Moscow, that it would never allow its reliance on Russian gas to go above 10 per cent.
Today Germany is desperately trying to reduce Russian gas imports below 50 per cent of national consumption, while the European Union as a whole, which gets 40 per cent of its natural gas from Russia, has pledged to reduce those by two-thirds within a year. Energy dependence is the Achilles heel of the EU, particularly of Germany, in facing down Russia.
Alternative sourcing is difficult and slow, while cuts in supply will close down industry. In the first two months of Russia’s assault on Ukraine EU countries paid some €39 billion (€8.3 billion in Germany’s case) for Russian energy, cash that has been vital to sustaining Moscow’s war machine. The dependence is mutual, but Vladimir Putin’s ability and apparent willingness to switch on and off the flow of gas is causing real alarm. Apart from soaring prices, there is talk in Berlin of a possible need to ration supplies to manufacturing industry this winter, and the danger of the region’s largest economy being pushed into recession.
It was hardly surprising then that yesterday, despite Germany’s ostensible desire to wean itself off Russian gas, the partial resumption of supplies through the controversial Nord Stream 1 pipeline was greeted with relief across Europe after it had been closed for “maintenance”. Although prices eased immediately, gas is still flowing at less than full capacity and there have been warnings of further maintenance shutdowns.
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But, crucially, Putin has demonstrated his ability to weaponise energy exports by stymying Europe’s ability to comfortably fill gas storages ahead of the winter, leverage that he will use again to divide European capitals. That reality has prompted the EU Commission to call on member states to cut consumption over the next eight months by 15 per cent. It is likely to propose mandatory measures to energy ministers next week.