The current wave of Covid-19 infections in the State appears to have peaked, with the number of positive cases reported to the authorities falling sharply and hospital admissions also declining. The Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) said 6,196 cases were detected in the week ending July 23rd, a fall of 47 per cent in a week. The true figure is likely to be much higher, given the tight criteria for PCR testing and the fact that most people likely do not report positive antigen results. However, the decrease is reflected in other data showing a decline in clusters – from 61 to 33 in a week – and a fall, from 943 to 513, in the number of people in hospital with Covid in the space of two weeks.
Those positive indicators come as the State prepares to overhaul its response to the pandemic. Testing for the general population will be phased out in the early autumn, while the large test-and-trace infrastructure will be scaled back. Both moves make sense. Large-scale vaccination and the evolving profile of the disease have reduced demand for testing and tracing. Retaining costly structures designed for an emergency phase, with under-occupied staff, is hard to justify, not least given the pressures facing the health service more generally.
Still, it is essential that new contingency plans are put in place to ensure that if a more virulent strain of Covid emerges, the State is in a position to respond quickly. Much of the responsibility for test-and-trace will in future fall on the National Ambulance Service. A core team of 200 tracers will be available, and large stocks of antigen tests will be retained. Under the emergency plan, there would reportedly be capacity for 150,000 tests within eight weeks.
The winding down of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was also justified, but it is critical that its key functions – surveillance, modelling and coordination – are taken up elsewhere. The HSPC is to have its own permanent modelling group and its staff count is to rise by 89. Public health in general must be a priority; one of the lessons of the pandemic was how big an error it was to allow that specialism to remain neglected and under-funded for so long.
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Public communication has been lacking in the current phase of the pandemic. While the need for regular updates on cases and hospital numbers is lower today, the importance of clear, regular advice on vaccination was underlined this week by figures showing that too many people have not taken up the offer of a booster shot.
For most people, Covid is a mild illness and an inconvenience. But many will continue to suffer well after their initial infection period from long Covid, a condition that the medical world is still working to understand. And for those with existing conditions or weak immune systems, Covid remains a dangerous and worrying prospect.