Taiwan is now the most volatile issue between the United States and China, with Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, preparing to visit the island as part of an Asian tour. The issue dominated a call between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the fifth such discussion they have had.
Biden’s confused signalling on the US One China policy over the last 18 months badly needs clarifying. He has said several times that the US would defend Taiwan from attack, recently mindful of Ukraine. The Pelosi visit, if it goes ahead, will push such clarification to be done in a conflictual setting rather than a diplomatic one. The longstanding One China policy acknowledges Taiwan is not independent and has formed the basis of US-China relations since the 1970s. That period covers China’s opening up to international economic relations and inward investment, its remarkable subsequent development, and now Xi’s determination that a much more self-sustained and powerful China will emerge from his third term in the role from this autumn.
In that context, plus the wider intensifying geopolitical competition between the two states, it is no surprise that many in Washington should worry the Pelosi visit is overly provocative. Xi put this graphically to Biden during the phone call: “Those who play with fire will only get burnt. hope the US side can see this clearly.”
Military and diplomatic advice against the visit has surfaced unusually, fearful that any accompanying incidents could escalate. Biden does not control Pelosi’s movements, even if she is technically third in line to succeed him in an emergency. Her determination to visit Taiwan reflects the cross-party consensus in Washington that China is the US’s major adversary, as well as factional disputes within the Democrats on how to deal with the issue. The two leaders discussed plans for a forthcoming in-person summit in the autumn. That is a good idea and it needs to be well-prepared on both sides, ideally without the provocations that could arise from this ill-advised forthcoming visit.