For several months, in spite of heavy fighting and high fatality rates on both sides, the frontlines of the war in Ukraine had appeared to be congealing. Invading Russian forces occupied one fifth of the country’s territory but struggled to advance further in the face of impressive resistance from a Ukrainian military that had enough firepower to halt the enemy’s progress but not enough to push it back. An influx of western heavy weaponry in recent weeks had boosted Ukraine’s capacity as well as its morale, enabling Kyiv to target arms and fuels depots deep in Russian-occupied land and to mass its forces in the south for a planned counter-offensive near the strategic city of Kherson.
Still, the speed and scale of the Ukrainian offensive action in northern Kharkiv region in recent days exceeded all expectations. It delivered Vladimir Putin the most humiliating setback on the battlefield since his forces’ abandonment of their assault on Kyiv last Spring and has sent a surge of renewed self-belief through Ukraine’s defenders and their western partners.
While Russian attention was focused on the Ukrainian military buildup near Kherson in the south, Kyiv caught Moscow by surprise by launching a rapid advance into Russian-held territory near Kharkiv in the north. Eyewitnesses described Russian soldiers fleeing in panic, leaving behind their tanks, weapons and ammunition. In just six days, some 3,000 sq m had been liberated – a rout that showed exemplary military tactics against a larger and better-armed opponent.
This war still has a long way to go. Heavy fighting continues on the frontlines, and Ukraine’s next task is to ensure it does not over-extend its supply lines and can secure the land it has retaken. Russia’s numerical advantage, and its much larger arsenal, will continue to shape events. But the Ukrainians’ success in Kharkiv oblast, and the stunning retreat of Russian soldiers, will reinforce the sense that, with the right support, Ukraine could win this war. The symbolic value of the current offensive is even greater than its strategic importance.
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The same is true in Russia itself, where despite absurd official claims of a planned “regrouping” the sight of Russian soldiers on the run has prompted doubts about official strategy to be openly aired. Even Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s strongman leader, has questioned Russian strategy. The psychological impact will reverberate across Russia, and that will rattle the Kremlin.
On the battlefield, meanwhile, the already limited trust Russian soldiers may have had in their generals is likely to weaken further. The worse things get for Russia on the ground in Ukraine, the weaker its president will appear. His response will become a cause of even greater concern.
Ukrainians hope this will prove a turning-point in the war. Putin must fear the same.