Public acknowledgements by Vladimir Putin that China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi have concerns about Ukraine were not-so-subtle diplomatic face-saving formulae for the Russian president that allowed both his “allies” to leave their reproaches unstated. But their concerns are serious, and reflect a growing weakness in Russia’s international position, only emphasised by its battlefield setbacks.
Xi has often described Putin as his “best friend” and, in February, hailed a friendship with “no limits”. But China has struggled to remain even semi-detached over Ukraine. With India, it has increased purchases of Russian energy exports and has continued to trade with Moscow since the invasion began. Yet the risk of secondary US sanctions means its companies have been wary about filling the hole that sanctions have left in Russia’s defence and technology sectors.
As Russia’s most important international partner, China shares the latter’s perceptions of Nato expansionism in eastern Europe, but sees the western alliance as having been strengthened by Russia’s war. And the US appears emboldened; could President Biden have otherwise promised, as he did, to defend Taiwan if attacked by China, apparently ditching his country’s traditional “strategic ambiguity” on the issue?
There is little doubt that Xi sees the Ukraine invasion as having significant parallels with China’s aspirations for Taiwan . It too is in the cross-hairs of a giant neighbour which has never recognised it as apart – unfinished business like Hong Kong once was. It too leans towards the west politically and militarily.
Modernism in Irish Women’s Writing review: Great insights into work of female writers
Ireland’s best-kept secret: our climate is heaven
LIV defectors Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton should be cut adrift from the Ryder Cup
Darren’s abuse by the priest ended when he was 11. His story remains one of the worst I’ve heard
Had the Ukraine operation been the swift, surgical operation that Putin had hoped for, Xi could have taken comfort in the relatively easy viability of a similar Taiwan military incursion. But the drawn-out nature of Putin’s campaign, the weaknesses exposed in a supposedly powerful, modern army, and the scale of international solidarity, must give him pause for thought. Hitching his country unambiguously to Russia’s coat-tails does not make sense.