It all happened quickly in the end. On Wednesday morning it appeared that Liz Truss could remain as UK prime minister for a few more weeks at least, after a reversal of economic policy calmed the markets. A few hours later, after another high profile resignation and chaotic scenes in a House of Commons vote on fracking, it was clear the game was up.
Truss had to go. Her political authority had been destroyed by a disastrous mini-budget, the subsequent crash in the markets and the departure of two senior cabinet ministers. She had lost the confidence of her own MPs.
The upheaval has reflected a deeply divided party and this makes it uncertain what happens next. A vote for sensible government is far from certain. Former chancellor Rishi Sunak is the early bookmakers’ favourite to take over, but there is – remarkably – support, too, for Boris Johnson, despite the terms on which he departed. The UK badly needs a period of political stability but the Conservatives look unable to deliver this.
Brexit is casting a long shadow. It is far from the sole cause of what has happened – a string of hapless policy decisions played a key role. But the underlying contradictions of Brexit are laid bare by an administration promising to cut taxes and boost growth against the backdrop of an economy whose trade performance is faltering. That is what happens when you close off free access to your biggest neighbouring market – the EU.
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The myth that this could create some kind of economic freedom fuelling a period of prosperity may still be popular in parts of the Conservative Party. But the cold calculations of the financial markets said otherwise, and when former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng proposed adding £45 billion in unfunded tax cuts to the mix they shouted stop. The vision of what Truss called a “low tax, high growth” economy buoyed by the “freedoms”of Brexit was judged to be a mirage.
The uncertain outlook in the UK as parts of the ruling party cling to the Brexit myth is worrying. Will the new Conservative leader and prime minister again have to kowtow to the extremists? It is unclear now when a promised new financial programme for the UK – which had been due on October 31st – will be published, as presumably the new prime minister will want an input, but will not even be in office until the end of next week. More market turmoil could lie ahead.
Vital discussions on the Northern Ireland protocol will also be effectively on hold as the deadline for forming a new Stormont administration to avoid an early Assembly election approaches.
The election of a new Conservative party leader and prime minister is being accelerated to try to avoid yet more damaging uncertainty. But time has surely run out for this dreadful Tory regime. A general election is needed – democracy demands it.