The world’s population passed eight billion this week, according to the United Nations. It was one billion in the 1750s, two billion in the 1930s and four billion in the 1980s. The rate of growth recently is phenomenal and many worry it is unsustainable. Nevertheless world population is calculated to peak and then decline in coming decades because of falling birth rates, caused mainly by the empowerment of women.
Ageing due to radically improved medical care explains much of the recent growth. Present population growth centres are in the poorest regions most amenable to radical action on inequality and aid. Such contrasting perspectives on the figures underline how important it is not to panic over them but instead to explore their dynamics and potential for progressive change.
Population numbers are closely connected to rapidly accumulating climate change, biodiversity loss, energy supply and urbanisation, all of which contribute to global ecological unsustainability. Yet most environmental damage is done by the world’s richest regions, countries and people, whereas the poorest and most populous ones are responsible for far less of it – but will suffer the most from its consequences.
Equality and inequality of power and resources cut across any simplistic assessment. Women’s empowerment through birth control methods and life choices are central to the story in recent decades. Where they are available, birth rates decline. That is happening fast in China and in more developed parts of India, the most populous states, and in most of the world’s richer countries. Poorer parts of India and of Africa south of the Sahara, by contrast, are where most future population increase is projected to happen.
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This interconnectedness of world population, development and environmental issues is systematically highlighted in recent analyses, especially by the United Nations Global Development Goals and in those accompanying the Cop27 climate conference. Unequal distribution of wealth and resources must be tackled if these issues are to be addressed. That means agreeing equitable loss and damage measures at Cop27 to finance development policies that can address poverty. It means taxing rich minorities, closing financial havens and ensuring multinational corporations share the costs of reducing the escalating inequalities built up since the 1980s.
These paths to a more sustainable future have been clearly identified and require urgent action. Otherwise current negative trends threaten to reinforce one another, including those towards large crisis-driven migrations fleeing climate breakdown, poverty and unsustainable population explosions. Against these, the positive countervailing trends visible in recent analysis deserve worldwide support.