Nearly 10 months of full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia have offered many crucial lessons to the warring parties and to Kyiv’s western allies – and this winter will reveal how well they have been learned.
Soon after launching its all-out invasion, the Kremlin must have realised that its notion of sweeping through much of Ukraine, swiftly taking Kyiv and being garlanded by joyous locals was the stuff of outlandish imperial fantasy.
Yet Russia continued to try to seize the Ukrainian capital, and a vast swathe of other territory arcing east and south to the Black Sea, without sufficient forces or defensible supply lines.This led to its humiliating withdrawal first from Kyiv region, then Kharkiv, then Kherson city and much of the surrounding province.
Moscow’s military is now operating on a shorter frontline with better links to Russia, but experts still question its choice of objectives, as it throws huge amounts of manpower and ammunition at the strategically insignificant town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine’s defenders quickly proved how effectively small, mobile units with powerful anti-tank weapons could destroy bigger and more cumbersome formations. They quickly learned how to operate more complex western arms to devastating effect on Russian command posts and arms and fuel depots far behind the frontline.
When the expected winter freeze firms up the current quagmire conditions in the east and south, Ukraine will seek to use its mobility to exploit any weak points in Russian positions, while using newly acquired western weaponry and artillery skills to keep pounding enemy supply lines.
Bogged down or in retreat on the battlefield, Russia has now turned its missile fire on civilian infrastructure, launching eight waves of cruise missiles at Ukraine’s power stations and destroying about 40 per cent of its national grid.
This tactic places particular onus on Ukraine’s air defence units, which have had to learn how to operate a range of western-supplied systems in combat conditions and are now putting them to good use – shooting down over 60 of the more than 70 missiles launched by Russia on Monday.
That success prevented another nationwide blackout but also highlighted how much death and damage could have been averted if the West had provided Ukraine with such defensive weapons earlier the year, rather than making Kyiv beg for them for months.
Kyiv’s allies should have learned by now the deadly cost of delay and must ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to survive the winter: cold-weather clothing, equipment and resupply of ammunition for its troops, and generators to bring its civilians heat and light where Russia intends freezing darkness.