The sudden abandonment by China’s president Xi Jinping of the three-year strict zero-Covid policy represents a remarkable U-turn. It reflects dramatically the interplay between the often contradictory imperatives of politics, economics and science in the dynamics of pandemic management. And it hints at the political vulnerability of the Chinese system itself.
Last Wednesday, the authorities announced that coronavirus patients who were either asymptomatic or had only mild symptoms could isolate at home rather than in hospitals or centralised quarantine facilities, while public venues in many cities would no longer have to check for negative Covid tests.
The state media insists the changes are designed to “contain the epidemic in a more science-based and targeted manner”. Not helping the plausibility of such claims, however, the regime is also seriously and deliberately under-reporting coronavirus cases and fatalities. Not least, for example, by normally only recording Covid deaths of those who have tested positive before seeking medical attention. And, as the “official” infection figures decline, the government will no doubt hope to claim success against the virus.
The U-turn is largely a response to political pressure from the thousands who have taken to the streets against president Xi Jinping’s heavy-handed controls and in the face of a severe external trade downturn and rise in youth unemployment. The slackening of controls is likely to mean infections and deaths will actually spread faster.
As the authorities started dismantling the system of lockdowns, mass testing, state quarantine and electronic contact tracing, modelling by economic consultants suggests that the relaxation could lead to up to one million deaths in a “winter wave” of Covid infections that could overwhelm the Chinese health system. Many hospitals and chemists are already reporting shortages of vital ibuprofen and paracetamol, notably in Beijing where Covid cases are rising rapidly.
The health authorities have also intensified campaigns to encourage vaccinations among the 90 million-odd elderly who remain inadequately inoculated. But the fact that much of the population has not had a jab, or fewer than the three needed for full protection, and the relative inefficacy of Chinese vaccines is likely to mean employers will continue to face serious labour shortages and struggle to maintain output.
Recovery from the Covid slump is likely to be slow. Last month’s figures showed exports contracted 8.7 per cent on the year while the yuan has slumped 10 per cent in the same period.
Xi Jinping’s U-turn is a necessary gamble, but his challenge may only be beginning.