It has been a dour political year for Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin became the largest party with more MLAs than the DUP in May’s Assembly election. But a week after the count that made Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill putative first minister, DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson stymied a historic moment by confirming that he would not nominate a DUP deputy first minister. Denying that his chief motivation was to block Sinn Féin, he said Downing Street must “take decisive action” on the Brexit protocol. His demands are variously worded but insistent that keeping Northern Ireland in the single market dilutes its UK status by treating it differently from Britain.
Nationalists and others – who delivered the disregarded Northern Ireland anti-Brexit majority -–retort that new trade regulations were bound to follow Brexit. Donaldson faces incessant pressure on the issue. Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister, the TUV’s sole MLA, tirelessly reiterates that no real unionist would ever serve alongside a Sinn Féin first minister.
Northern Unionism’s monolith started to crack long ago. The demand to end the protocol’s increased checks -–or further refine them, probably the most that British prime minister Rishi Sunak will fight for -– has crystallised insecurity at the loss of their majority. This leaches moderate votes from would-be reconcilers like Ulster Unionist party leader Doug Beattie. As the year ended, tensions were again bubbling between Unionist leaders and new Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.
As calls develop for polls north and south on unification, the pull of circling wagons may have capped last May’s ‘Alliance surge’ towards the centre party. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin has reaped nationalist voters angered by the DUP, further shrinking the once dominant SDLP. The Identity and Language Bill “received assent” from King Charles on December 6th, giving Irish (as well as Ulster Scots) official status and making it possible to use Irish in court, banned by the Penal Laws. As with the patchy provision of abortion, however, opposition to which was also fronted up by the DUP, language legislation brought muted celebration. The first trial in Irish may bring cheers as well as predictable boos. Campaigners are cautiously optimistic about a properly resourced rollout of abortion provision by next April.
Northern Ireland’s political year ends with a weak British government apparently uninterested, or stumped on how to thaw Stormont. Rising fuel bills, near-panic over a stumbling health service and the recent severe cold leave an unloved system noticed chiefly for what it did not deliver: fuel vouchers, unlike in Britain. Speculation is beginning that the devolved legislature may never return. The first few months of 2023 will tell a lot, with a fresh attempt to break the logjam on the protocol under way.