That famed aperture, the window of opportunity, seems likely to make yet another appearance in the political discourses of Ireland, the UK and the European Union in the early part of this year. The pre-Christmas mood music improved considerably in London, with Rishi Sunak’s administration signalling its desire for an agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol that would eliminate the potential for further trade disruptions between Britain and the continent – an economic drag that the UK’s stuttering economy can ill-afford. And now Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is conceding that parts of the protocol are too strict and that this causes political problems for unionists.
Technical talks between the two sides have intensified and are said to be productive, though as yet there is no breakthrough. The EU has responded to what it sees as a new realism in London by extending transitional arrangements on the importation of veterinary products to Northern Ireland for a further two years. There is a sense in Brussels that Sunak’s government is interested in finally putting the question to bed and is willing to make the necessary compromises, in a way that the two previous British administrations were not.
In truth, the contours of a possible agreement – the “landing zone”, in the language of the relevant branch of diplomacy – are broadly visible and have been for some time. It will most likely not involve a change in the text of the protocol, nor its legal reach, meaning that the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as the final arbiter on the rules of the single market as they apply to Northern Ireland would remain. This is difficult for the hardline Eurosceptics of the Conservative Party and some unionists to stomach. But Sunak is going to have to stand up to them at some stage of his premiership. It might as well be now.
On the EU side, Brussels is likely to concede a very light-touch version of protocol implementation that leaves the vast majority of goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain largely unmolested by bureaucracy and checks – as long as there remains safeguards for the EU that the single market is being protected. Legally, the protocol would remain unchanged; practically it would be transformed from the intrusive checks and bureaucracy that some unionists felt was an undermining of their place in the UK.
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If such an agreement is struck, it would broadly be in accordance with the wishes of people in Northern Ireland. Polling for the recent North and South series in The Irish Times found that the majority of people wanted a negotiated solution involving changes to the protocol, not its uncompromising application, nor its wholesale abandonment. The people of Northern Ireland, in other words, favour a worked-out compromise. Everyone else should listen to them.