Time was running out fast for Ukraine when politicians and analysts gathered this time last year at the annual security conference in Munich.
The Bavarian capital is a fated place to push for peace and the shadow of Munich 1938 – Chamberlain’s 1938 appeasement talks with Hitler and his empty “peace in our time” promise – hung over last year’s gathering.
As the Munich conference marks its 60th birthday this year, organisers have uninvited Russia rather than risk offering a platform for Moscow to spread propaganda about its war. Deaths on each side have long entered six figures, according to various sources, while at least five million Ukrainians are now living elsewhere.
Reflecting on everything that has happened, Munich is a chance to reflect, too, on what hasn’t happened – and what has yet to happen.
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In the most dramatic test of strength since 1945, western allies have held together and, in many ways, are more united than ever. Last year’s questions in Munich of whether to support Ukraine have, this year, been superseded by how to expedite support.
Poland, Ukraine’s indispensable ally, has taken in a record 1.5 million of its neighbours and has become a key training and supply partner. Kyiv and other European capitals know they are lucky to have a US administration determined to stay the course.
Outgoing Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg is working to get Sweden and Finland into the alliance, an unthinkable prospect 12 months ago. Another taboo shattered since last year’s Munich gathering has seen Germany cast aside decades of postwar caution to become, behind the US and UK, the third-largest donor of arms and equipment to Ukraine.
Chastised for months by European neighbours over its hesitancy to deliver battle tanks, Germany has now promised to deliver 14 new Leopard 2 tanks and 88 older models. Their loudest critics, Berlin officials noted this year, have yet to commit.
Beyond public messages of support for Ukraine, the quiet diplomacy for which the gathering is famous offers a unique chance to assess the position away from the public spotlight, and look at how the war might be ended. Where will the conflict be when the 2024 conference is held ?
German philosopher Jürgen Habermas warned this week that even with the best of intentions, growing western arms deliveries to Ukraine could “drive us more or less unnoticed beyond the threshold for a third World War”.
Despite this, the Western allies remain committed to supporting Ukraine’s fight, even if the level of support provided is less than Kyiv feels it should receive. And Russia looks set on upping the ante through a new offensive.