The election in Estonia has delivered a clear victory for outgoing prime minister Kaja Kallas and her centre-right Reform party. Estonia, like the other Baltic republics, Latvia and Lithuania, was an integral part of the Soviet Union before winning independence in 1991. The large shadow cast by its neighbour has been an important factor in shaping the country’s politics since, particularly after the launch of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Kallas’s term in office has been particularly notable for her strong support for Kyiv, which has been not just verbal but practical: in proportion to its size, Estonia has been the largest supplier of armaments to Ukraine and the biggest recipient of refugees.
The main opposition to Reform has come from the Eurosceptic, far-right EKRE party, which in the previous election in 2019 increased its vote from 8 per cent to 18 per cent. Its leader, Martin Helme, has stated that there can be no place for black people in Estonia while the party chairman criticised participants in a Pride demonstration and said it should not enjoy police protection. In the run-up to the election EKRE campaigned against hosting Ukrainian refugees and argued that Estonia should not needlessly antagonise Russia. It also put Reform on the defensive over an inflation rate of more than 18 per cent, much of it caused by rocketing energy bills which Kallas’s rigid free-market principles initially made her reluctant to see the state subsidising.
EKRE, however, found itself alone in the Estonian political landscape in urging a softer line with Russia. Even the Centre party, traditionally supported by the large ethnic Russian minority, was critical of Putin’s invasion, which cost it some electoral support. In the final results Reform added three seats and EKRE lost two. The entrance into parliament of the new liberal centrist formation Estonia 200 with 14 seats has widened Kallas’s political options. A coalition of Reform, Estonia 200 and the social democrats, that is of the centre-right, centre and centre-left, is one option that could provide a strong working majority.