Nobody saw the evictions ban as being part of a long-term solution to the rental crisis. But ending it without a package of measures in place to ameliorate the impact – especially on those who may lose their homes – is not a good strategy. The Government is developing such a package, we are told, but it should have been ready to go before the ban ended, rather than now being put together after the event.
It is a cliché, but true nonetheless, that there was no easy decision for the Cabinet to take, no perfect answer that would not have undesirable consequences. The continuation of the evictions ban was seen to be on a shaky legal footing. Ministers argue, with justification, that an extension would have risked more private landlords leaving the market, further hitting supply.
However, the risk now is of a rise in evictions without additional measures taken to help people who will have nowhere to live. Given the current state of the rental market, many who are evicted will struggle to find a place to rent, never mind one they can afford. Where will they go if existing emergency accommodation is full?
The chronic lack of supply in the rental market has the Coalition in a bind. The initial indications had been that the Government would extend the ban for a period. However, this was reversed on Monday evening when the three Coalition party leaders met.
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This points to indecision and uncertainty about the correct way forward. The Government says it will work on a package aimed at landlords and tenants over the coming months. But why was this work not well underway already, with measures ready to go as the evictions ban ended?
There are some interesting possibilities which could improve the situation being floated, including the right of a tenant to have first refusal if a landlord puts a property on the market, or that housing bodies or local authorities could purchase more of such properties, potentially leaving tenants in place.
Of course the longer-term solution is more supply into all areas of the rental market and here new thinking is needed, too. There is a risk of a fall-off in apartment building as interest rates and building costs go up, while private landlords are leaving the market. More building by local authorities and housing bodies is a key longer-term measure, but will take time to bear fruit. Shorter- term measures are needed too to protect tenants and keep private landlords in the market.
The latest policy reversal does not engender confidence that the Government is getting to grips with this situation. The evictions ban could have been extended for a short period until the range of promised new measures were in place. Now the Government is scrambling to catch up and risks making further wrong moves.