For decades the political, economic and religious rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has shaped the turbulent Middle East. The two, separated by less than 150 miles of Persian Gulf waters, have faced off in violent proxy wars like those in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and in ideological competition for the leadership of bitterly divided Sunni and Shia communities. Or in the struggle to control markets for oil supplies – the sinews of war machines.
That rivalry had in recent years even seen rocket attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi – in 2019 a missile/drone assault on a major oil installation, blamed on Iran, had briefly disrupted half of the kingdom’s crude production.
Now an apparent reconciliation between the two which has surprised allies and international powers, brokered by regional-outsider China, appears set to rewrite the region’s dynamics. The deal will see the re-establishment of diplomatic relations seven years after formal ties were cut, and confirmation of their “respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in their internal affairs”. Time will tell on this. And both agreed to reactivate a lapsed security co-operation pact and older trade, investment and cultural accords.
For Iran, grappling with domestic unrest and an economy hobbled by harsh sanctions, the deal marks an important breakthrough, but also a pragmatic shift in strategic perspective that may signal a growing preference for diplomacy over force as an international tool.
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Saudi’s “reformist”, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to transform the kingdom into a global power in its own right, a hub for business and culture. He is also keen to portray it as a neutral arbiter in a world polarised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its budget has been drained by conflicts abroad, its reputation stained by acts like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
It is too early to say if the rapprochement will actually bring a measure of peace to the region, and the Israelis, who have been sidling up to the Saudis against mutual adversary Tehran, will wonder where it leaves them.