China’s credentials as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war were set out by party leader Xi Xinping after speaking to President Volodymir Zelenskiy, who described their conversation as “long and meaningful”. The Chinese side stressed its commitment to “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity”, correcting a diplomatic gaffe by its ambassador to France, who earlier compared Taiwan’s claims to independence with those of Ukrainian Crimea, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from the former Soviet Union. The precise timing of Xi’s initiative is probably related and could be a positive factor in any prospective peace negotiations.
The Chinese are to send a high-level diplomatic team to Ukraine and elsewhere in search of possible openings for such talks. Other principles for a political settlement they put forward include dialogue and joint management of the crisis – and that there is no winner in nuclear wars. Their peace plan published in February set them out first but it failed to criticise Russia’s unjustified violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and was thus too close to Moscow for European preference. Since then a succession of European visitors to Beijing laid out their stall on overall relations as well as Ukraine, and are preparing a new European Union policy on China, to be agreed in June.
China’s growing involvement with Ukraine is thus part of a wider effort to encourage engagement with Europe and discourage the EU’s growing transatlantic security and economic relations with the United States. The Ukraine war, as its forces and those of Russia gear up for intense spring offensives, may be decisively resolved either way in coming months, although a prolonged military stalemate is equally likely. That might set the scene for serious negotiations in the autumn which now need to be prepared by proper engagement of all parties.
These developments come against the background of China’s much deeper engagement as a stronger partner with Russia over the course of the war. That speaks to shifting geopolitical interests of both states as they confront a more united transatlantic partnership and try to find support among leaders from Latin America, Africa and Asia, disenchanted with the unequal distribution of world power. China and Russia have had some success here, a matter of concern to European and US leaders. This shows the worldwide effects of the Ukraine war are surprisingly unanticipated and open to manifold attempts at peacemaking.
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In that context China’s engagement is welcome, if qualified by its own interests and values. From Ukraine’s point of view China remains an important economic partner and could be a strong influence on a Russia hesitant to reach a settlement. Both states should maintain and develop their newfound engagement.