Actions speak louder than words. The willingness of western countries in the past few days to recommit political support and substantial new supplies of weapons to Ukraine’s war effort is eloquent testimony to a solid belief in European capitals that Ukraine can win its war with Russia and that its imminent offensive is capable of taking back significant swathes of occupied territory.
Vladimir Putin’s repeated insistence that European allies are set to abandon Kyiv would seem to be wishful thinking. Indeed, reports from Moscow suggest that those around him are preparing for a years-long war.
The enhanced capabilities of the Ukrainian defence forces were demonstrated last weekend in the resilience of Kyiv’s missile defences, bolstered by advanced western-supplied anti-missile systems, in repulsing one of the biggest rocket raids since the invasion. They shot down an entire wave of six Kinzhal missiles, Russia’s most potent hypersonic weapon, as well, Ukrainian says, as nine Kalibr missiles, three ballistic rockets, six attack drones and three reconnaissance drones. There were reports this week also of the downing of four Russian military aircraft.
And the continuing defence of the battered city of Bakhmut, albeit at a high cost in lives, also reflects the military’s robustness and strong morale. Ukrainian gains on the outskirts of the city, itself of strategically-limited consequence, are putting the Russians inside Bakhmut at risk of being surrounded and trapped, and would demonstrate that the fortified lines the Russians have built across 600km of Ukraine can be breached. The battle is also forcing Moscow to redeploy troops, badly needed to repel the counteroffensive, to the city from along those lines.
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The drawn-out battle of Bakhmut has also exposed some of the real weaknesses of the Russian forces – stretched resources, disorganised defences and disunity in the ranks and in the command structures. These are epitomised in the bizarre rants by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner mercenary group so central to the Bakhmut fighting, in vitriolic attacks on the competence of the general staff.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s three-day trip to London, Berlin, Paris and Rome secured promises of more military assistance, including long-range attack drones from the UK. Both the UK and France have announced they will soon start training Ukrainian pilots, and would work with other countries on a key Ukrainian demand, the delivery of F-16 jets needed to protect ground troops in the offensive.
It is likely that, within days, a new phase in the war will start, in which the continued supply of allied weapons becomes more vital than ever. Zelenskiy’s successful European tour was essential politically to consolidate that support.