As Ukraine’s defences in the eastern city of Bakhmut were close to collapse on Sunday after a grinding, nine-month battle, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in Japan lobbying Group of Seven (G7) leaders for support. The leaders of the US, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Canada and Japan affirmed their solidarity with Ukraine ahead of an offensive that could determine how and when the war ends.
Zelenskiy had already won an important breakthrough before the summit when US president Joe Biden agreed to the training of Ukrainian pilots to fly US-made F-16 fighter jets. Ukraine says it needs the aircraft, which will be provided by European states, to deny Russia air superiority.
The Ukrainian president has promised Biden that the aircraft will not be used to attack Russia within its own borders, a move Washington fears could escalate the conflict. But the decision to train the pilots is an important signal of political resolve among Kyiv’s western partners .
Zelenskiy may also have hoped to persuade the leaders of India and Brazil, so-called “swing states” that have declined to take sides in the war, to join the western powers in backing Ukraine. But Narendra Modi and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva offered no sign that they are preparing to shift position and both called for an end to the war.
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A group of African states have proposed a peace initiative and have offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. China has also focused on the search for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, sending a senior diplomat to Kyiv, Moscow and western European capitals last week to take soundings about a ceasefire.
If Ukraine needs the support of its western partners to prosecute the next stage of the war, negotiating a peace settlement may require a broader international effort. China, as the only major power with influence over Russia, could play a crucial part in such negotiations and in ensuring that the terms of a final settlement are adhered to.
This makes a lowering of tensions between Beijing and Washington all the more welcome and after the summit Biden promised an imminent thaw in their relationship. The G7 leaders’ communiqué rejected economic decoupling from China but said parts of their economies should be “de-risked” from excessive reliance of Chinese supply chains.
This language, along with a declaration that the G7 does not wish to thwart China’s rise, reflects the influence of European states that wish to avoid a great power confrontation between Washington and Beijing. But the communiqué also warned China against economic coercion aimed at other countries in pursuit of political objectives. If China wishes to improve its relationship with Europe and to make the most of any re-engagement with the US, it would do well to heed that warning.