Multilateral contacts and diplomacy on the Ukraine war are intensifying, perhaps ahead of setting out conditions for negotiating an end to the conflict ahead of any actual talks. Such talks will depend on military outcomes, but political preparedness is indispensable. In the meantime this terrible war continues, passing its 500th day, with the estimated loss of the lives of 9,000 civilians and more fierce fighting in prospect.
Diplomatic contacts are also in the spotlight. Reports that Chinese president Xi Jinping warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin against any use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine when they met in Moscow last March were denied in Moscow and are officially unconfirmed in Beijing. That they have surfaced now is nevertheless revealing.
They signify increasing Chinese disquiet about the war and its potential effects on China’s international position. They bear out previous Chinese warnings about the non-use of nuclear weapons after the Moscow meeting – and if Xi did not say that explicitly to Putin then he should have. The current reports are particularly focused on Beijing’s attempts to woo European states for support against United States efforts to limit or “de-risk” strategic economic links with China in their growing geopolitical struggle.
News has also surfaced that three former senior US officials unofficially met the Russian foreign minister in April to discuss a possible framework for negotiating an end to the war. Two of the US officials have published an article saying this is necessary. They distinguished between the need for Western powers to increase military aid for Ukraine to optimise its summer offensive against Russian forces, and the equal need to have a negotiating framework in place for any autumn and winter negotiations.
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Politics plays into such scenarios as president Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine warns that Russia has mined the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, as a possible target like the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam. Any such action should be regarded just as negatively as the use of nuclear weapons. Zelenskiy wants this week’s Nato summit to agree on Ukrainian membership. But that too would be an irresponsible escalation of the war.
Optimal military solidarity with Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression this summer combined with preparing for later talks on ending the war is the better course. However Western allies are correct to question the supply by the US of cluster bombs to Ukraine, announced last Friday in what US president Joe Biden said was a " very difficult decision”. While these have already been deployed in the war, by both sides, the fact that their use has been banned in more than 100 countries because of the risk to civilians is telling.