Binyamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel faces a “long and difficult war” as its forces wage gun battles with Hamas units after the Palestinian group’s surprise attack from Gaza by land, sea and air. While the Israeli army’s comparative military strength means it is certain to retake control in southern Israel, Netanyahu’s words hinted ominously at the prospect of a ground invasion of Gaza.
An enraged Israeli public is not going to stay his hand. Appalling atrocities committed by Hamas against civilians at the weekend will unite Israelis in backing a large military assault on Gaza. Civilians in Gaza are braced for a terrible onslaught.
The scale of the Hamas onslaught, the most extensive since the Yom Kippur War of 1973, will lead to soul-searching in Israel, representing as it does a stunning failure of that country’s much-vaunted intelligence services.
The taking of hostages will complicate and prolong Israel’s response. Hamas will demand the freeing of thousands of militants from Israeli jails in return for the hostages. Their captivity in the strip will also inhibit retaliatory bombing raids by the Israelis, not known for being proportionate or well-targeted.
While Hamas has said the attacks were in response to the occupation, the blockade on Gaza, Israeli control of the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and the prolonged detention of Palestinian militants, its callous targeting of civilians cannot be justified.
The broader context is relevant. Hamas has seized what it no doubt sees as an opportunity in Israel’s political crisis over the right-wing government’s judicial reform to scuttle a US-brokered rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran, a sponsor of Hamas, fears the strengthening of that alliance against it, and may have encouraged the weekend assault. Israel’s harsh response will put the Saudis in a difficult position.
If Hamas is calculating that political divisions will weaken Israel’s hand in responding, however, it is misjudging the dynamics of Israeli politics. Reservists, refusing to serve in protest at Netanyahu’s policies, were among the first to respond to the military call-up, while the opposition has said it is considering joining a government of national unity. Hamas has thrown Netanyahu a lifeline. In the medium-term at least, the Israeli right-wing will be strengthened, further diminishing any hope of an end the occupation.
Meanwhile, there are reports that Iran-backed Hizbullah in southern Lebanon has been involved in attacks on northern Israel, a development that could impinge on the Irish UN peacekeeping contingent close to the border.
Hamas is not synonymous with Palestinians, just as not all Israelis support the Netanyahu government. But once again it is those civilians, Israelis and Palestinians, who will suffer most.