In the past week, two of Labour’s seven sitting TDs have announced they will not contest the next election. For any party to lose such a substantial proportion of its Dáil representation would be a serious matter. For Labour, which faced electoral headwinds even before the recent announcement of constituency boundary revisions, it will contribute to a sense of existential threat. Alan Kelly has not yet decided whether to stand again in Tipperary, but his departure would leave Labour going into the next election with just four sitting TDs – three in Dublin and one in Louth – none of whom can be considered safe.
Announcing his decision to retire from politics after a distinguished career in government and party leadership, Brendan Howlin expressed confidence that Labour could retain a seat in the reconfigured Wexford constituency. That remains to be seen. However, the prognosis is gloomier in Cork, where the displacement of Seán Sherlock’s electoral heartland of Mallow from Cork East to Cork North Central contributed to his decision to stand down.
Previously, when Labour’s support in Dublin ebbed, it could fall back on the local strength of TDs like Howlin and Sherlock. That no longer seems to be the case, and the party’s prospects of gaining additional seats look modest in a general election which will be characterised by fierce competition on the left and centre-left.
A good showing in next June’s local elections will be essential to lay the foundation for any success in the Dáil contest. But opinion polls continue to show Labour becalmed at three or four per cent support. On a particularly good day, the party might hope to translate that into the same number of Dáil seats it currently holds. On a bad one, it could mean complete wipeout. That would be a bleak moment for the State’s oldest political party and for current leader Ivana Bacik. Howlin believes that space remains on the Irish political landscape for a social democratic party and predicts a future merger with the Social Democrats. He may or may not be correct about that but his party needs to survive the next election first.