Fianna Fáil members and representatives gather in Dublin on Saturday for a one-day ard fheis which offers the party leadership an opportunity to set out its message to the organisation and to the general public ahead of a year of elections in 2024.
Next year will see local and European elections at the beginning of the summer, with heavy speculation about an autumn general election that must take place by March of the following year. All parties are using their conferences to rally their own troops and speak directly to the public through the televised leaders’ addresses.
The ard fheis comes at a time when Fianna Fáil faces significant political challenges, both within government, where it occupies the two most difficult ministries in health and housing, but also electorally, where opinion polls suggest it may struggle to retain the seats won at the last election.
The party must also figure out what its attitude to a possible coalition government with Sinn Féin would be. It is entirely possible, going on current polling trends, that such a coalition might be the only numerically viable option for a working majority. Sinn Féin has said it will speak to all potential partners. Fianna Fáil’s position is more ambiguous. At the last election, party leader Micheál Martin ruled out the Sinn Féin option. But it is not clear if he will repeat that opposition next time.
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Or indeed, if Martin will be the leader of the party at that time. Speculation that he might, after 13 years leading Fianna Fáil, depart for a role in Brussels next summer has led to denials, but has proved persistent. His departure would be a huge blow to Fianna Fáil. But all leaders must depart sometime. It is one of Martin’s legacies that there will be a Fianna Fáil after him.
How potent and substantial a force the party will be, and what role it plays in future government formation, will be determined by its performance in politics and government in the coming year. Its position in the polls is not robust, but it is not disastrous. Much remains to play for. The challenge for the party today is to show onlookers, and perhaps itself, that it is up for the fight.