Has Ukraine’s military offensive become bogged down in a first World War-style stalemate? Last week, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy emphatically contradicted a statement to that effect from his own commander in chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Signs of tensions between government and military were also apparent when Zelenskiy fired the head of special forces without informing Zaluzhnyi.
It would be foolhardy to make any firm predictions about future developments in a conflict which has surprised observers more than once since Russia’s initial assault in February 2022. But while Zelenskiy points to recent territorial gains by Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region, it is clear that, with winter now upon us, ambitions of a significant breakthrough on the eastern or southern fronts are unlikely to be realised this year. Meanwhile, a Russian counter-offensive around the town of Avdiivka has so far been repelled, with heavy casualties reported for the attackers. Russian losses over the course of the war are estimated to be double those of Ukraine’s, but the smaller country’s armed forces must still contend with an estimated 70,000 dead and 120,000 wounded.
The fighting of the last several months has also drained Ukraine’s supplies of weapons and ammunition. As Russia steps up its attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, another grim winter lies ahead. With international attention now focused on events in Gaza, the fear for Ukraine is that international support may waver in the absence of success on the battlefield.
Talk of stalemate inevitably prompts the question of whether Ukraine’s stated war aim of recovering all its sovereign territory, including Crimea, has any prospect of success. And if not, what compromise, if any, would be acceptable to the people of Ukraine who have suffered so much? Confirmation that presidential elections scheduled for next March have been postponed ensures that electoral politics remains off the agenda for now, but opinion polls show that while trust in the government has declined since the start of the summer, trust in the military remains high. And the vast majority of Ukrainians still oppose any territorial concessions for peace.
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Better news for Zelenskiy came with last week’s recommendation from the European Commission that EU accession negotiations should begin with Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine’s struggle to escape the Russian sphere of influence ultimately rests not just on events on the battlefield but on securing long-term commitments from the EU and from Nato. When peace negotiations take place, as at some stage they must, it is hard to see them succeeding, regardless of territorial issues, if they do not include a security guarantee that offers protection against another military incursion by a re-armed Russia.