The meeting of President Joe Biden with President Xi Jinping in San Francisco at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Wednesday is a welcome sign that US-China relations are back on a constructive track after a period of deep uncertainty. The two superpowers are simultaneously competitors, rivals and partners. This summit meeting will help determine whether they can reach a more stable relationship based on mutual respect and a better understanding of how their differences can be defined and managed.
Contextual factors have driven both sides to pursue improved relations in recent months. The Chinese economy is in need of increased US trade and investment as it recovers more slowly than expected from Covid lockdowns. President Xi wants to stabilise economic relations with the US and minimise moves by the United States and European Union to limit its access to high technology.
Economic competition overlaps with growing geopolitical and military tension between the US and China over Taiwan and the South China Sea and with the growing US involvement in the Indo-Pacific region. This is a continuing part of the US tilt to Asia under way for the last decade and more. It is driven by a US determination to restrict, deter, contain, or to engage with, China’s emergence as a great power if that involves displacing the existing US role regionally or globally.
Uncertainty over the priorities of US policy concerns both presidents as they seek to define the future relationship. The US debate on this is polarised between supporters of greater managed engagement and those supporting containment as they believe the two powers are fundamentally divided over vital interests and values. The Chinese formula of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation” is plainly pitched at greater engagement. That fundamental issue of engagement versus containment will not be resolved today. But it should animate the talks on Taiwan, trade, cybersecurity, technology, climate change and security. Other countries will be affected and must be involved in the outcome.