The State’s plans to transition to green energy are moving slowly – too slowly. A combination of the rising costs of developing projects, planning hold-ups and electricity grid constraints have slowed investment in vital renewable wind projects. It is not too late to accelerate progress to try to meet the 2030 targets – but unless this happens it will be clear by the middle of this decade that Ireland will not come anywhere near its goals. As well as the obvious climate impact, this will also have wider social and economic costs.
A report this week by Davy stockbrokers outlines the issues clearly. Projects approved under earlier auctions for the State-supported Renewable Energy Support Schemes (RESS), notably for onshore wind, are progressing more slowly than expected. In turn, this has lowered demand for the most-recent auction and increased the subsidies the State has had to offer.
An acceleration is needed if the State is to come anywhere close to the target of a 51 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030. This is vital as the energy sector, traditionally reliant on fossil fuels, is one of the areas of the economy with the most ambitious targets. Also, other sectors of the economy – such as transport and industry– will have to rely on a greater supply of green energy to meet their targets.
However, the current pace of progress is a reason for concern. Planning delays appear to be a major factor holding up onshore wind projects, with many stuck in the system, where the average wait time is now put at over 90 weeks. So far this year, according to Davy, no wind farm has been granted planning permission.
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As well as planning delays, upgrades in the electricity infrastructure are needed. And the economics of investment are more difficult, too, with costs on the increase along with the price of borrowing. All this casts doubt over the pace of development of onshore wind projects already approved and the ability of companies to develop and finance new ones. Unless there is an acceleration in the development of offshore wind projects,, meanwhile, it may not be in a position to contribute to meeting the 2030 targets.
The Government is trying to accelerate development, through the vital reform of the planning system, investment in grid infrastructure and pushing ahead with offshore wind as the long-term " game-changer.” Here, international signals of challenges in the offshore wind market are concerning – caused by rising costs, higher interest rates and uncertainties over revenues.
The Government cannot solve all these problems. But it is essential that it plays its part and focuses on accelerating the areas under its control. Otherwise, in a couple of years time, Ireland will be in trouble and the costs the State faces from the energy transition will start to rise sharply.