It was take-it-or-leave-it time at Stormont on Tuesday and the DUP seems to have left it: a £3.3 billion inducement from London to go back into the Stormont power-sharing Executive was left on the table.
The door is not closed but the clock is ticking, with the notional deadline for the formation of an Executive set for January 18th. Such deadlines can be moved, but surely only so many times. Public sector workers are already engaged in industrial action and have a day of action planned for the same day. It is hard to see what can change in the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson’s favour in the interim. What is on offer seems to be the best deal possible and has the support of the other Stormont parties; Sinn Féin, Alliance, the Ulster Unionists, and the SDLP.
The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Chris Heaton-Harris has made it clear that there is no more money on the table, but his offer still stands. London and Brussels have both made clear that the Windsor Framework – which settles trade issues for Northern Ireland caused by Brexit – is not going to be reopened, even if some tweaks may have been on the table between the UK government and the DUP.
Donaldson cannot negotiate with this reality no matter how unhappy he may be about it. He now knows how much taxpayer money is on offer to help him to sign up. From the outside his reluctance to take the deal makes little sense. But Donaldson and his party have been here before and up to a point they are playing to type.
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The history of the DUP is that the party will not move in order to please others; the DUP will move when the DUP decides its interest – and those of unionism in Northern Ireland as defined by it – requires it to move.
But Donaldson has been around long enough to know that time kills deals, both political and financial. He may fancy squeezing the British exchequer for a bit more in the New Year – with the encouragement of the other Northern parties, including Sinn Féin. However, he will not want to be seen to have “sold out”. And anyway he would be unwise to overplay his hand.
The focus in London come the New Year will shift quickly towards the forthcoming UK general election – due by 2025 but possibly as early as next spring – in which Northern Ireland will not figure to any significant extent.
Donaldson’s own electoral considerations – including the prospect of being outflanked by even more intransigent unionists opposed to any compromise – may be contributing to his reluctance to move. Likewise, the gifting of £3.3 billion to a Sinn Féin-led Executive may not be to his liking.
But ultimately, for the union he values to endure in the longer term, Northern Ireland has to work. Taking the deal now on offer is surely the best way to try to ensure that happens.