If there is one word that sums up the state of the planet going into 2024, it is polycrisis – the combination of climate disruption caused by an overheating world, nature under pressure and widespread pollution of water, air and ecosystems. They are all interlinked. Reducing one of the three threats invariably brings wider benefits. But the climate emergency and overheating is the key factor; it comes with the most risk for countries ––rich and poor – and with worsening global emission trends will come yet more heat and extreme weather events. Superimposed on that is more unpredictability and less ability to control the fate of humanity and keep the Earth within safe boundaries.
The scientific evidence, however, indicates like never before that failure to address all three in a coherent way makes sustainability impossible to achieve. The overhaul of EU environmental and energy policy reflects that essential truth in the guise of the European green deal.
This legislative package is probably the single most significant achievement of the outgoing European Commission. Ireland has echoed strongly its ambitions, especially in the climate context, but the State has its own crisis of poor implementation of policy across all three headings. There is a glaring failure under climate adaptation to prepare adequately for what is going to hit the country because of overheating which cannot now be stopped – think 2023 floods on a much larger scale.
The need for much more urgency in delivering proven solutions, rather than banking on possible future technological fixes, could not be clearer. Yet, despite the building crisis, politics is locked by fear that transformative actions will be too disruptive for a sceptical public already wrestling with an uncertain world, including high energy prices and an acute housing problem.
Matt Williams: Take a deep breath and see how Sam Prendergast copes with big Fiji test
New Irish citizens: ‘I hear the racist and xenophobic slurs on the streets. Everything is blamed on immigrants’
Jack Reynor: ‘We were in two minds between eloping or going the whole hog but we got married in Wicklow with about 220 people’
‘I could have gone to California. At this rate, I probably would have raised about half a billion dollars’
This is despite increasing evidence that a more radical approach, while also applying just transition principles would, ultimately, be a lot less costly and put society and the economy in a more robust position. Budget 2024 did see the Government introduce a much-heralded €3 billion climate fund, though it will only begin to build up from 2025 onwards and it seemed to come with an “if needed” tag.
Perhaps the most shocking indication of the level of collective response that is needed – both at national and global level – is that for the second year in a row the planet is set to face its hottest year on record. And Met Éireann confirmed on Thursday that 2023 will also be the warmest year on record for Ireland. With climate change doubling down on the effects of a natural El Niño in coming months, there is unlikely to be any let-up in 2024.
On balance the Cop28 climate summit yielded an outcome of substance, especially in a unanimous agreement to transition away from fossil fuels by 2050 and to triple renewable energy by 2030 – in line with what science says is required. But as it drew to a close, data released by Copernicus, the European earth observatory agency, provided a stark reminder that much still needs to be done to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.
Its message was startling; if a 30-year warming trend up to the Paris Agreement in 2015 continued, 1.5 degrees could be breached by 2045. However, if the same extrapolation was made in November 2023, global warming could breach 1.5 degrees by February 2034; 11 years sooner, with all the woe and destruction that would inevitably follow. Increased climate-induced migration, hunger and conflict can be added to that list.
Facing into this point of no return, there are many indications that finally countries, including big emitters with wealthy economies built on fossil fuels as well as developing states, are prepared to move together in unprecedented ways in responding to the polycrisis.
At a time of much geopolitical tensions and war, it shows multilateralism can still make a difference to the wellbeing of global citizens. In tandem with this, a mosaic of financial solutions is beginning to emerge, to support the most-climate vulnerable states beyond government spending and including private finance.
Ireland is in the vanguard pushing for higher ambition, though its national performance remains poor. The latter is down to tardy execution of commitments made, but also getting buy-in from every business, household and workplace. This is somewhat painful, but in our collective best interests.
Ironically, it was Taoiseach Leo Varadkar who consistently underlined at Cop28 in Dubai what is necessary in the face of this existential threat. Put simply, we have to deliver what we have promised to do. He put this view to fellow world leaders in an attempt to end the cycle of even more ambitious language and bigger promises that are rarely delivered, and acknowledged it equally applied on the home front.
He was correct in noting that, “never before have the alarm bells been ringing so loudly”. This warning need to come with the blunt message that time is running out for effective action.