Back in September the European Greens fired a warning shot across the bows of Ursula von der Leyen’s supposed campaign for a second term as European Commission president. She denied that she was running or intended to run, but the talk of Brussels is that she is interested. The Greens were upset that von der Leyen was said to be contemplating a run that would circumvent the parliament’s informal Spitzenkandidat, or “lead candidate”, system under which EU leaders would automatically pick the principal candidate of the party which got most votes. It would represent a modicum of a democratic mandate.
Von der Leyen knows, however, that the member state leaders who make the decision have little time for what they see as the parliament’s self-aggrandising mechanism and, as they did last time, are willing to bypass it in favour of someone unbeholden to MEPs.
The announcement by Belgian European Council president Charles Michel that he will stand down early from his post to run as an MEP has to be seen in this context. If elected, the likelihood is that Michel intends to pitch for one of the top commission posts in the leaders’ gift – either seeking to take over from von der Leyen, or aiming for Josep Borrell’s job as foreign policy chief.
He is expected to be the liberal Renew group’s lead candidate, but that may matter less to leaders than he might hope. There is talk of other Renew candidates for the top jobs, including Tánaiste Micheál Martin, as well as some other senior EU political figures such as acting Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte. And other political grouping will also have a say.
‘I want to be alone’: Greta Garbo, sure. Daniel Day-Lewis, maybe not so much after all
Pat Leahy: Trouble at the top? Relations between Simon Harris and Micheál Martin are frayed
‘I crossed the river for both my wife and my chips’: End of an era for Lennox’s chipper in Cork
TV guide: the best new shows to watch this week, beginning tonight
Michel will not have endeared himself to the EU leaders. His departure means Hungarian president Viktor Orban could be in the chair of the council if a replacement to Michael is not agreed by June.
Were this to be threatened, the other leaders could probably find a way around it. Nonetheless, Michel’s announcement has fired the starting gun on the big reshuffle of EU jobs to come over the summer